Sheffield United vs Birmingham: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Sheffield United or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sheffield United at 44.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 51.6% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 52.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The model leans Sheffield United at 44% when Sheffield United host Birmingham in the Championship on 15 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Sheffield United than the market (38%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. • The recent series reads 3 wins for Sheffield United, 2 draws and 0 for Birmingham over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. • Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Sheffield United against W3 D2 L1 for Birmingham. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
44.5%+6.3%
27.1%-0.8%
28.4%-5.5%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sheffield United 3 · 2 draws · Birmingham 0 · 2.6 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Sheffield UnitedBirmingham58.7%45.7%
56.5%56.5%
21.7%21.7%
League averages this season: 2.61 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 51% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.7% | Over 7.5 | 53.8% | Over 8.5 | 41.2% | Over 9.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 58.4% | Most: Birmingham | 29.2% | ||||
| Sheffield United Over 4.2 | 47.7% | Birmingham Over 4.2 | 26.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.4% | Over 3.5 | 53.0% | Over 4.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sheffield United | 27.2% | Most: Birmingham | 52.6% | ||
| Sheffield United Over 1.8 | 46.9% | Birmingham Over 1.8 | 65.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 32.1% |
|---|---|
| Birmingham clean sheet | 22.8% |
| Sheffield United win to nil | 24.1% |
| Birmingham win to nil | 14.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 44.5% | draw | 27.1% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.6% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 61.0% | away | 39.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.9% | no | 47.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.2% | away | 22.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.3% | away | 14.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 13.6% | home_by_3plus | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.9% | away_by_2 | 8.0% | away_by_3plus | 3.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 0-1 | 7.7% | 0-2 | 4.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 2.6% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.0% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.0% | under_0.5 | 8.0% | over_1.5 | 74.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.9% | over_2.5 | 48.4% | under_2.5 | 51.6% |
| over_3.5 | 26.7% | under_3.5 | 73.4% | over_4.5 | 12.4% |
| under_4.5 | 87.6% | over_5.5 | 5.0% | under_5.5 | 95.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.2% | under_0.5 | 22.8% | over_1.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.5% | over_2.5 | 18.6% | under_2.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.8% | under_0.5 | 32.2% | over_1.5 | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.7% | over_2.5 | 10.6% | under_2.5 | 89.4% |
most
| home | 44.5% | draw | 27.1% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.7% | away_+2.5 | 91.3% | home_-1.5 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.8% | home_-0.5 | 44.5% | away_+0.5 | 55.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.6% | away_-0.5 | 28.4% | home_+1.5 | 88.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.5% | home_+2.5 | 96.5% | away_-2.5 | 3.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.0% | exact_1 | 17.9% | exact_2 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.2% | exact_5 | 7.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.4% | draw | 37.8% | away | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.3% | over_1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.0% | over_2.5 | 16.1% | under_2.5 | 83.9% |
btts
| yes | 23.3% | no | 76.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.3% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.0% | exact_4plus | 5.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.2% | draw | 41.6% | away | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.5% | under_0.5 | 29.5% | over_1.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.6% | over_2.5 | 12.5% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
btts
| yes | 20.8% | no | 79.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.3% | H/D | 6.1% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.8% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 10.3% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 15.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.0% | under_7.5 | 20.0% | over_8.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.0% | over_9.5 | 58.7% | under_9.5 | 41.3% |
| over_10.5 | 47.1% | under_10.5 | 52.9% | over_11.5 | 36.1% |
| under_11.5 | 63.9% | over_12.5 | 26.4% | under_12.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.1% | under_3.5 | 19.9% | over_4.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.3% | over_5.5 | 52.0% | under_5.5 | 48.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.9% | under_3.5 | 36.1% | over_4.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.2% | over_5.5 | 31.6% | under_5.5 | 68.4% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 10.0% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.1% | away_+3.5 | 71.9% | home_-1.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% | away_+0.5 | 41.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% | home_+1.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.7% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.5% | under_22.5 | 39.5% | over_24.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.1% | over_26.5 | 35.8% | under_26.5 | 64.2% |
| over_28.5 | 25.2% | under_28.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.2% | under_10.5 | 25.8% | over_12.5 | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.7% | over_14.5 | 42.0% | under_14.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.1% | under_10.5 | 51.9% | over_12.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.6% | over_14.5 | 17.3% | under_14.5 | 82.7% |
most
| home | 66.3% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.2% | away_+4.5 | 58.8% | home_-2.5 | 53.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.1% | home_-0.5 | 66.3% | away_+0.5 | 33.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.0% | away_-0.5 | 28.0% | home_+2.5 | 81.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.3% | home_+4.5 | 89.0% | away_-4.5 | 11.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.7% | under_6.5 | 33.3% | over_7.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.2% | over_8.5 | 41.2% | under_8.5 | 58.8% |
| over_9.5 | 29.9% | under_9.5 | 70.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.8% | under_3.5 | 35.2% | over_4.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.3% | over_5.5 | 32.3% | under_5.5 | 67.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.9% | under_3.5 | 56.1% | over_4.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.1% | over_5.5 | 14.9% | under_5.5 | 85.1% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 12.4% | away | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.7% | away_+2.5 | 67.3% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.6% | home_+0.5 | 70.8% | away_-0.5 | 29.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.7% | away_-2.5 | 11.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.4% | under_2.5 | 26.6% | over_3.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.0% | over_4.5 | 33.6% | under_4.5 | 66.5% |
| over_5.5 | 18.7% | under_5.5 | 81.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 46.9% | under_1.5 | 53.1% | over_2.5 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 65.4% | under_1.5 | 34.6% | over_2.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.3% |
most
| home | 27.2% | draw | 20.2% | away | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.7% | away_+1.5 | 87.3% | home_-0.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.8% | home_+0.5 | 47.4% | away_-0.5 | 52.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.0% | away_-1.5 | 32.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.9% | under_20.5 | 41.1% | over_22.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 56.8% | over_24.5 | 29.0% | under_24.5 | 71.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 51.3% | under_9.5 | 48.7% | over_11.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 70.6% | over_13.5 | 14.0% | under_13.5 | 86.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 73.5% | under_9.5 | 26.5% | over_11.5 | 53.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.0% | over_13.5 | 32.9% | under_13.5 | 67.1% |
most
| home | 29.8% | draw | 7.3% | away | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 13.0% | away_+3.5 | 87.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.2% | home_+2.5 | 52.8% | away_-2.5 | 47.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 28.3% | no | 71.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 14.4% | no | 85.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 16.3% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Sheffield United predictions · Birmingham predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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