AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
StokeStokeWWWLW
Full time0-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
Bristol CityBristol CityLWDLL

Stoke 0-0 Bristol City cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.8%

Result

Stoke0-0Bristol City
3 yellow cardsStoke 1, Bristol City 2
0 red cardsStoke 0, Bristol City 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.2% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 91.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

James Bell

Recorded match referee.

James Bell in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 105 4
Goals 2.32 Not available
Yellow cards 3.39 Not available
Red cards 0.15 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 21.6 Not available
Both teams scored 48% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 40% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Stoke vs Bristol City 0-0 0 No 3 0 11 20
12 Sep 2026 Swansea vs Burnley 3-1 4 Yes 3 0 9 14
9 Sep 2026 Derby vs West Brom 0-1 1 No 4 1 14 21
29 Aug 2026 Bristol City vs Portsmouth 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 13 21
25 Apr 2026 Chesterfield vs CreweLeague Two 2-0 2 No 3 0 3 19
24 Jan 2026 Birmingham vs Stoke 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 12 17
1 Jan 2026 Bristol City vs Portsmouth 5-0 5 No 1 0 2 20
26 Dec 2025 Middlesbrough vs Blackburn 0-0 0 No 4 0 8 20
13 Dec 2025 Norwich vs Southampton 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 11 25
9 Dec 2025 QPR vs Birmingham 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 19

James Bell referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stoke vs Bristol City. Slightly more cards are projected for Bristol City for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.9% 28.1%
3.5 cards 51.2% 48.8%
4.5 cards 31.8% 68.2%
5.5 cards 17.4% 82.6%

Who picks up more cards

Stoke
37.1%
Level
21.5%
Bristol City
41.4%

Team cards lines

Stoke

Over 1.5
54.0%
Over 2.5
27.2%

Bristol City

Over 1.5
57.2%
Over 2.5
30.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Stoke's; Bristol City gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Stoke line Stoke Bristol City
-1.5 19.3% 80.7%
-0.5 37.1% 62.9%
+0.5 58.6% 41.4%
+1.5 77.4% 22.6%

Red card

Any red card8.5%
Stoke red card4.7%
Bristol City red card3.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 58.2% 41.8%
22.5 fouls 42.4% 57.6%
24.5 fouls 28.2% 71.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Stoke O Langford 2 2.5 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.9% for over 2.5 to 17.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. On the card count, Bristol City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 21.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Stoke over 1.5 cards sits at 54.0% and Bristol City at 57.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.5% (Stoke 4.7%, Bristol City 3.9%). Stoke’s most frequent referee this season, O Langford, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.2%Over 3.5 cards
8.5%Any red card
41.4%Most cards: Bristol City
54.0%Stoke over 1.5 cards
57.2%Bristol City over 1.5 cards
42.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherO Langford, Stoke’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBristol City are the pick to collect more cards at 41.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Stoke vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.2% for Stoke vs Bristol City.
Will there be a red card in Stoke vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stoke vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol City to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.