AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
St PauliSt PauliWDWDD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1112:30UK
NurnbergNurnbergWWDDL

St Pauli vs Nurnberg corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined58.9%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined41.1%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners58.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for St Pauli.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 80.4% 19.6%
8.5 corners 70.3% 29.7%
9.5 corners 58.9% 41.1%
10.5 corners 47.1% 52.9%
11.5 corners 36.0% 64.0%
12.5 corners 26.2% 73.8%

Who wins the corner count

St Pauli
49.7%
Level
10.7%
Nurnberg
39.7%

Team corners lines

St Pauli

Over 3.5
76.2%
Over 4.5
61.3%
Over 5.5
45.8%

Nurnberg

Over 3.5
70.3%
Over 4.5
53.9%
Over 5.5
38.2%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is St Pauli's; Nurnberg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

St Pauli line St Pauli Nurnberg
-1.5 39.1% 60.9%
-0.5 49.7% 50.3%
+0.5 60.4% 39.7%
+1.5 70.3% 29.7%
St PauliSt Pauli

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means St Pauli at home and Nurnberg away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NurnbergNurnberg
Statistic
St Pauli
Nurnberg
Corners won per game at this venue
7.3
5.8

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.0
5.0

First-half corners won per game
2.8
2.1

Second-half corners won per game
2.9
4.0

Matches with more corners than the opponent
44.4%
44.4%

Matches with corner data
9
9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 58.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 80.4% for over 7.5 to 26.2% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.1%. Between the two sides, St Pauli are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.7%, with a level count at 10.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, St Pauli over 4.5 corners sits at 61.3% and Nurnberg at 53.9%. This season St Pauli have averaged 5.7 corners won a game and Nurnberg 6.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

58.9%Over 9.5 corners
49.7%Most corners: St Pauli
61.3%St Pauli over 4.5 corners
53.9%Nurnberg over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 58.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSt Pauli are the pick to win the corner count at 49.7%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 47.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 10.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
St PauliSt Pauli

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NurnbergNurnberg
Statistic
St Pauli
Nurnberg
corners won per game
5.7
6.1

corners conceded per game
4.7
4.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in St Pauli vs Nurnberg?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 58.9% for St Pauli vs Nurnberg.
Which team will win the corner count in St Pauli vs Nurnberg?
The model rates St Pauli to win the corner count at 49.7%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How many corners do St Pauli and Nurnberg average this season?
St Pauli have won 5.7 corners a game this season and Nurnberg 6.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

2. BundesligaSt Pauli fixtures and statsNurnberg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.