Championship
Southampton vs Bristol City Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.3% for over 2.5 to 18.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.9%. Head to head on cards, Bristol City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.9%, with a level count at 20.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.6% | 81.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.7%
23.5%
63.1%
36.2%
Card handicap
| Southampton line | Southampton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| +1.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.4% | 72.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Southampton cards per game8.8Southampton fouls per game1.4Bristol City cards per game11.2Bristol City fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Southampton vs Bristol City. Slightly more cards are projected for Bristol City for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.9%Over 3.5 cards10.0%Any red card49.7%Southampton over 1.5 cards63.1%Bristol City over 1.5 cards41.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Southampton over 1.5 cards sits at 49.7% and Bristol City at 63.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.0% (Southampton 1.2%, Bristol City 8.9%). This season Southampton have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Bristol City 1.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.9% for Southampton vs Bristol City.
Will there be a red card in Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model rates Bristol City to pick up more cards at 48.9%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.