Championship
Southampton vs Bristol City Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 52.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.6% for over 22.5 to 28.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.2%. On the shot count, Southampton are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.5%, with a level count at 5.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.8% | 71.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.6%
58.6%
42.2%
54.4%
36.3%
21.7%
Shot handicap
| Southampton line | Southampton | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| -2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| -0.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| +0.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.6% | 65.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
16.8Southampton shots per game15.2Southampton shots faced per game11.6Bristol City shots per game14.4Bristol City shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Southampton.
In-depth analysis
52.2%Over 24.5 shots58.6%Southampton over 12.5 shots36.3%Bristol City over 12.5 shots58.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Southampton over 12.5 shots sits at 58.6% and Bristol City at 36.3%. This season Southampton have averaged 16.8 shots a game and Bristol City 11.6.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.2% for Southampton vs Bristol City.
Which team will have more shots in Southampton vs Bristol City?
The model rates Southampton to take more shots at 62.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.