Shots
| Over 22.5 |
64.6% |
Over 24.5 |
52.2% |
Over 26.5 |
40.0% |
Over 28.5 |
28.9% |
| Most: Preston |
59.1% |
Most: Lincoln |
34.9% |
| Preston Over 13.2 |
48.0% |
Lincoln Over 13.2 |
30.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
66.3% |
Over 7.5 |
53.2% |
Over 8.5 |
40.5% |
Over 9.5 |
29.2% |
| Most: Preston |
48.7% |
Most: Lincoln |
38.1% |
| Preston Over 4.2 |
40.7% |
Lincoln Over 4.2 |
33.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
67.6% |
Over 3.5 |
46.0% |
Over 4.5 |
27.1% |
| Most: Preston |
36.5% |
Most: Lincoln |
41.2% |
| Preston Over 1.8 |
50.2% |
Lincoln Over 1.8 |
53.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Preston clean sheet |
34.2% |
| Lincoln clean sheet |
21.8% |
| Preston win to nil |
26.1% |
| Lincoln win to nil |
13.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
47.2% |
draw |
26.8% |
away |
26.0% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
74.1% |
12 |
73.2% |
X2 |
52.8% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
23.0% |
home_by_2 |
14.5% |
home_by_3plus |
9.7% |
| away_by_1 |
15.9% |
away_by_2 |
7.1% |
away_by_3plus |
2.9% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
8.1% |
0-1 |
7.4% |
0-2 |
4.3% |
| 0-3 |
1.5% |
0-4 |
0.4% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
10.8% |
1-1 |
12.8% |
1-2 |
6.5% |
| 1-3 |
2.3% |
1-4 |
0.6% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
8.7% |
2-1 |
9.3% |
2-2 |
5.0% |
| 2-3 |
1.8% |
2-4 |
0.5% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
4.4% |
3-1 |
4.7% |
3-2 |
2.5% |
| 3-3 |
0.9% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.7% |
4-1 |
1.8% |
4-2 |
1.0% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.5% |
5-1 |
0.5% |
5-2 |
0.3% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.8% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
91.9% |
under_0.5 |
8.1% |
over_1.5 |
73.7% |
| under_1.5 |
26.3% |
over_2.5 |
48.0% |
under_2.5 |
52.0% |
| over_3.5 |
26.3% |
under_3.5 |
73.8% |
over_4.5 |
12.2% |
| under_4.5 |
87.8% |
over_5.5 |
4.9% |
under_5.5 |
95.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
78.2% |
under_0.5 |
21.8% |
over_1.5 |
45.1% |
| under_1.5 |
54.9% |
over_2.5 |
19.8% |
under_2.5 |
80.3% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
65.6% |
under_0.5 |
34.4% |
over_1.5 |
28.9% |
| under_1.5 |
71.1% |
over_2.5 |
9.3% |
under_2.5 |
90.7% |
|
most
| home |
47.2% |
draw |
26.8% |
away |
26.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
9.7% |
away_+2.5 |
90.3% |
home_-1.5 |
24.2% |
| away_+1.5 |
75.8% |
home_-0.5 |
47.2% |
away_+0.5 |
52.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
74.1% |
away_-0.5 |
26.0% |
home_+1.5 |
90.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
10.0% |
home_+2.5 |
97.1% |
away_-2.5 |
2.9% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
8.1% |
exact_1 |
18.2% |
exact_2 |
25.8% |
| exact_3 |
21.7% |
exact_4 |
14.1% |
exact_5 |
7.3% |
| exact_6 |
3.2% |
exact_7plus |
1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
32.3% |
draw |
43.8% |
away |
23.9% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
67.0% |
under_0.5 |
33.0% |
over_1.5 |
30.4% |
| under_1.5 |
69.6% |
over_2.5 |
10.1% |
under_2.5 |
89.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
33.0% |
exact_1 |
36.6% |
exact_2 |
20.3% |
| exact_3 |
7.5% |
exact_4plus |
2.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
28.3% |
draw |
41.5% |
away |
30.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
70.6% |
under_0.5 |
29.4% |
over_1.5 |
34.6% |
| under_1.5 |
65.4% |
over_2.5 |
12.6% |
under_2.5 |
87.5% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
24.6% |
H/D |
5.7% |
H/A |
2.0% |
| D/H |
12.4% |
D/D |
18.2% |
D/A |
13.2% |
| A/H |
1.4% |
A/D |
4.2% |
A/A |
18.3% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
81.5% |
under_7.5 |
18.5% |
over_8.5 |
71.9% |
| under_8.5 |
28.1% |
over_9.5 |
60.8% |
under_9.5 |
39.2% |
| over_10.5 |
49.3% |
under_10.5 |
50.7% |
over_11.5 |
38.1% |
| under_11.5 |
61.9% |
over_12.5 |
28.2% |
under_12.5 |
71.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
79.1% |
under_3.5 |
20.9% |
over_4.5 |
65.2% |
| under_4.5 |
34.8% |
over_5.5 |
50.3% |
under_5.5 |
49.7% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
68.4% |
under_3.5 |
31.6% |
over_4.5 |
51.9% |
| under_4.5 |
48.1% |
over_5.5 |
36.4% |
under_5.5 |
63.6% |
|
most
| home |
54.1% |
draw |
10.2% |
away |
35.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
24.8% |
away_+3.5 |
75.2% |
home_-1.5 |
43.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
56.4% |
home_-0.5 |
54.1% |
away_+0.5 |
45.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
64.3% |
away_-0.5 |
35.7% |
home_+1.5 |
73.6% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.5% |
home_+3.5 |
87.6% |
away_-3.5 |
12.5% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
64.6% |
under_22.5 |
35.4% |
over_24.5 |
52.2% |
| under_24.5 |
47.8% |
over_26.5 |
40.0% |
under_26.5 |
60.0% |
| over_28.5 |
28.9% |
under_28.5 |
71.1% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
72.8% |
under_10.5 |
27.2% |
over_12.5 |
56.4% |
| under_12.5 |
43.6% |
over_14.5 |
39.9% |
under_14.5 |
60.1% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
57.0% |
under_10.5 |
43.0% |
over_12.5 |
38.9% |
| under_12.5 |
61.1% |
over_14.5 |
23.8% |
under_14.5 |
76.1% |
|
most
| home |
59.1% |
draw |
6.0% |
away |
34.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
34.3% |
away_+4.5 |
65.7% |
home_-2.5 |
46.5% |
| away_+2.5 |
53.5% |
home_-0.5 |
59.1% |
away_+0.5 |
40.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.1% |
away_-0.5 |
34.8% |
home_+2.5 |
76.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
24.0% |
home_+4.5 |
84.7% |
away_-4.5 |
15.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
66.3% |
under_6.5 |
33.8% |
over_7.5 |
53.2% |
| under_7.5 |
46.8% |
over_8.5 |
40.5% |
under_8.5 |
59.5% |
| over_9.5 |
29.2% |
under_9.5 |
70.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
58.4% |
under_3.5 |
41.6% |
over_4.5 |
40.7% |
| under_4.5 |
59.3% |
over_5.5 |
25.9% |
under_5.5 |
74.1% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
50.9% |
under_3.5 |
49.1% |
over_4.5 |
33.2% |
| under_4.5 |
66.9% |
over_5.5 |
19.6% |
under_5.5 |
80.4% |
|
most
| home |
48.7% |
draw |
13.2% |
away |
38.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
24.3% |
away_+2.5 |
75.7% |
home_-0.5 |
48.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
51.3% |
home_+0.5 |
61.9% |
away_-0.5 |
38.1% |
| home_+2.5 |
83.4% |
away_-2.5 |
16.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
67.6% |
under_2.5 |
32.4% |
over_3.5 |
46.0% |
| under_3.5 |
54.0% |
over_4.5 |
27.1% |
under_4.5 |
72.9% |
| over_5.5 |
14.0% |
under_5.5 |
86.0% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.2% |
under_1.5 |
49.8% |
over_2.5 |
23.9% |
| under_2.5 |
76.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
53.7% |
under_1.5 |
46.3% |
over_2.5 |
26.9% |
| under_2.5 |
73.1% |
most
| home |
36.5% |
draw |
22.3% |
away |
41.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
18.4% |
away_+1.5 |
81.6% |
home_-0.5 |
36.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
63.5% |
home_+0.5 |
58.8% |
away_-0.5 |
41.2% |
| home_+1.5 |
78.2% |
away_-1.5 |
21.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
59.4% |
under_20.5 |
40.6% |
over_22.5 |
43.7% |
| under_22.5 |
56.3% |
over_24.5 |
29.3% |
under_24.5 |
70.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
61.0% |
under_9.5 |
39.1% |
over_11.5 |
38.5% |
| under_11.5 |
61.5% |
over_13.5 |
20.5% |
under_13.5 |
79.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
66.6% |
under_9.5 |
33.4% |
over_11.5 |
44.6% |
| under_11.5 |
55.4% |
over_13.5 |
25.4% |
under_13.5 |
74.6% |
|
most
| home |
41.7% |
draw |
7.9% |
away |
50.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.9% |
away_+3.5 |
79.1% |
home_-0.5 |
41.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
58.3% |
home_+2.5 |
65.2% |
away_-2.5 |
34.8% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Championship