La Liga
Sevilla vs 
Barcelona Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 48.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 61.1% for over 22.5 to 25.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. Between the two sides, Sevilla are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.2%, with a level count at 6.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.6% | 74.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.7%
50.3%
33.9%
58.0%
39.8%
24.6%
Shot handicap
| Sevilla line | Sevilla | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| -2.5 | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| -0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +0.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
4.0 / 7.8
9.8 / 11.2
This season (2026/27)
11.7Sevilla shots per game9.2Sevilla shots faced per game4.0Sevilla first-half shots7.8Sevilla second-half shots21.0Barcelona shots per game7.3Barcelona shots faced per game9.8Barcelona first-half shots11.2Barcelona second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Sevilla.
In-depth analysis
48.4%Over 24.5 shots50.3%Sevilla over 12.5 shots39.8%Barcelona over 12.5 shots62.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Sevilla over 12.5 shots sits at 50.3% and Barcelona at 39.8%. This season Sevilla have averaged 11.7 shots a game and Barcelona 21.0. Sevilla take 4.0 shots before half-time and 7.8 after, Barcelona 9.8 and 11.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Sevilla vs Barcelona?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 48.4% for Sevilla vs Barcelona.
Which team will have more shots in Sevilla vs Barcelona?
The model rates Sevilla to take more shots at 54.2%.
Do Sevilla shoot more in the first or second half?
Sevilla average 4.0 shots before half-time and 7.8 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
