La Liga
Sevilla vs 
Barcelona Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11Sevilla xG created/game
1.16Sevilla xG conceded/game4.31Barcelona xG created/game1.17Barcelona xG conceded/gameRecent xG created & conceded (per game)
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
1.11
1.16
4.31
1.17
Sevilla have created 1.11 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Barcelona have created 4.31 xG and scored 4.67 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.
In-depth analysis
57.8%Both Teams to Score60.3%Over 2.5 goalsThese are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Match outlook
The model leans Barcelona to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 1 · 0 draws · Barcelona 4 · 5.2 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
