AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

La Liga
SantanderSantanderLLDLW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:15UK
Real MadridReal MadridWLWWW

Racing Santander vs Real Madrid xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Santander1.32

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Real Madrid2.08

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Santander have created 1.32 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Real Madrid have created 2.08 xG and scored 2.50 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

SantanderSantander

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Real MadridReal Madrid
Statistic
Santander
Real Madrid
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.32
2.08

xG conceded per game
2.90
1.36

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

SantanderSantanderLast 5
L
Loss · 2-7
L
Loss · 0-5
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 0-2
W
Win · 2-1

1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses

Real MadridReal MadridLast 5
W
Win · 3-2
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 1-0
W
Win · 4-1
W
Win · 2-1

4 wins · 0 draws · 1 loss

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

No recorded head-to-head results available.

Match outlook

Santander16.2%
Draw20.4%
PickReal Madrid63.4%

The model leans Real Madrid to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

63.4%Favoured: Real Madrid
55.9%Both Teams to Score
58.7%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

SantanderSantander (1)
Yassir Zabiri
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
39.4%
2.54
1+ shot on target
58.3%
1.72
2+ shots
48.3%
2.07
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.44
On target1.85
Goals1.06
Real MadridReal Madrid (1)
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
60.8%
1.64
1+ shot on target
90.0%
1.11
2+ shots
95.2%
1.05
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots5.02
On target2.41
Goals0.98

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaRacing Santander fixtures and statsReal Madrid fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.