Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs 
Sp Braga Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 87.1% for over 2.5 to 37.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. On the card count, Santa Clara are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 18.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
71.7%
46.1%
69.8%
43.8%
Card handicap
| Santa Clara line | Santa Clara | Sp Braga |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| -0.5 | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| +0.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| +1.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.9% | 17.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 60.6% | 39.4% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Santa Clara cards per game13.3Santa Clara fouls per game1.8Sp Braga cards per game13.8Sp Braga fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Santa Clara vs Sp Braga. It tips Santa Clara for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
72.8%Over 3.5 cards17.3%Any red card71.7%Santa Clara over 1.5 cards69.8%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards72.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Santa Clara over 1.5 cards sits at 71.7% and Sp Braga at 69.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Santa Clara 10.7%, Sp Braga 7.4%). This season Santa Clara have averaged 2.5 cards a game and Sp Braga 1.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Santa Clara vs Sp Braga?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 72.8% for Santa Clara vs Sp Braga.
Will there be a red card in Santa Clara vs Sp Braga?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Santa Clara vs Sp Braga?
The model rates Santa Clara to pick up more cards at 42.3%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
