Primeira Liga
Santa Clara vs 
Sp Braga Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 38.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 50.8% for over 22.5 to 19.0% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.8%. On the shot count, Santa Clara are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.5%, with a level count at 6.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 19.0% | 81.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
62.5%
45.6%
30.5%
47.6%
30.8%
18.1%
Shot handicap
| Santa Clara line | Santa Clara | Sp Braga |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| -2.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +0.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.7Santa Clara shots per game8.2Santa Clara shots faced per game13.4Sp Braga shots per game8.4Sp Braga shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Santa Clara.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
38.7%Over 24.5 shots45.6%Santa Clara over 12.5 shots30.8%Sp Braga over 12.5 shots51.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Santa Clara over 12.5 shots sits at 45.6% and Sp Braga at 30.8%. This season Santa Clara have averaged 13.7 shots a game and Sp Braga 13.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Santa Clara vs Sp Braga?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 38.7% for Santa Clara vs Sp Braga.
Which team will have more shots in Santa Clara vs Sp Braga?
The model rates Santa Clara to take more shots at 57.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,000 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
