AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
RotherhamRotherhamLDWDL
Full time1-4Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
GillinghamGillinghamWWWLD

Rotherham 1-4 Gillingham shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined53.8%
Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined46.2%

Result

Rotherham1-4Gillingham
Shots in this match: Rotherham vs Gillingham
This match Rotherham Gillingham Total
Shots 12 8 20
Shots on target 5 4 9
Under 24.5Under 7.5

We called Under 24.5 at 53.8% and it landed (20 in the match). We called Under 7.5 at 50.2% and it missed (9 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots46.2%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Rotherham.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 59.0% 41.1%
24.5 shots 46.2% 53.8%
26.5 shots 34.1% 65.9%
28.5 shots 23.7% 76.3%

Who takes more shots

Rotherham
61.5%
Level
6.1%
Gillingham
32.4%

Team shots lines

Rotherham

Over 10.5
70.7%
Over 12.5
53.8%
Over 14.5
37.3%

Gillingham

Over 10.5
50.9%
Over 12.5
32.9%
Over 14.5
19.0%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 62.8% 37.2%
7.5 shots on target 49.9% 50.1%
8.5 shots on target 37.5% 62.5%
9.5 shots on target 26.9% 73.1%

Who has more on target

Rotherham
59.8%
Level
12.3%
Gillingham
27.9%

Team shots on target lines

Rotherham

Over 3.5
62.8%
Over 4.5
45.9%
Over 5.5
31.1%

Gillingham

Over 3.5
39.7%
Over 4.5
23.5%
Over 5.5
12.7%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rotherham's; Gillingham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Rotherham line Rotherham Gillingham
-4.5 36.0% 64.0%
-2.5 48.6% 51.4%
-0.5 61.5% 38.5%
+0.5 67.6% 32.4%

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Rotherham in their home matches and Gillingham in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

RotherhamRotherham

Recorded 2026/27

GillinghamGillingham
This season
Statistic
Rotherham
Gillingham
Shots per game
12.4
10.3

Shots faced per game
11.3
13.9

Shots on target per game
3.8
3.6

On target faced per game
3.9
4.0

Rotherham at home, Gillingham away
Statistic
Rotherham
Gillingham
Shots per game
13.5
9.5

Shots faced per game
9.8
16.3

Shots on target per game
4.8
2.5

On target faced per game
3.0
5.0

By half, this season

No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.

Last six league matches
Statistic
Rotherham
Gillingham
Shots per game
11.7
9.3

Shots faced per game
12.0
14.3

Matches
6
6

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 46.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 59.0% for over 22.5 to 23.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.2%. Between the two sides, Rotherham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.5%, with a level count at 6.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Rotherham over 12.5 shots sits at 53.8% and Gillingham at 32.9%. This season Rotherham have averaged 12.4 shots a game and Gillingham 10.3.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

46.2%Over 24.5 shots
61.5%Most shots: Rotherham
53.8%Rotherham over 12.5 shots
32.9%Gillingham over 12.5 shots
49.9%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.2% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderRotherham are the pick to have more shots at 61.5%, shot volume follows the side that keeps the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 46.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Rotherham vs Gillingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 46.2% for Rotherham vs Gillingham.
Which team will have more shots in Rotherham vs Gillingham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rotherham to take more shots at 61.5%.
How many shots do Gillingham take away from home?
Gillingham have taken 9.5 shots per game and faced 16.3 in recorded away league matches this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoRotherham fixtures and statsGillingham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.