Serie A
RomaRomaWWWDD
Full time2-0Sat, 17 Oct 202617/1019:45UK20°C · Clearing
GenoaGenoaLLDLW

Roma 2-0 Genoa both teams to score: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Both teams to score: No54.3%
Both teams to score: Yes45.7%

Result

Roma2-0Genoa
No

We called No at 54.3% and it landed.

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Both teams to score · No54.3%

Both Teams to Score

Yes45.7%
NoModel lean54.3%

Related market Over 2.5 goals 47.5%

Recent scoring & conceding

Goals scored and conceded per game over each side's recent matches. The bar runs from 0 to 3.5 goals per game.

Roma scored
2.0
Roma conceded
0.6
Genoa scored
1.0
Genoa conceded
1.8

Each team to score

Roma to score83.2%
Roma 2+ goals53.3%
Genoa to score54.4%
Genoa 2+ goals18.7%

By half

Both score in 1st half12.6%
Both score in 2nd half23.6%

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

8.2%

0

18.5%

1

25.8%

2

21.7%

3

14.0%

4

10.9%

5+

Recent trends

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side's recent games.

RomaBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 3/5
GenoaBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 3/5

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

RomaRomaLast 5
W
Win · 4-0
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 2-0
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 0-0

3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses

GenoaGenoaLast 5
L
Loss · 0-1
L
Loss · 1-4
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 2-1

1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3RomaRoma wins
1Draws
1GenoaGenoa wins
2.8Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
GenoaGenoa
2 – 1
RomaRoma
RomaRoma
3 – 1
GenoaGenoa
RomaRoma
3 – 1
GenoaGenoa
GenoaGenoa
1 – 1
RomaRoma
RomaRoma
1 – 0
GenoaGenoa

Match outlook

PickRoma64.3%
Draw23.1%
Genoa12.6%

The model leans Roma to win.

See the full prediction

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.4%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0218Calibration error
72,238Matches graded

In 26,174 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.5%✗ 57.9%✗ 55.0%✗ 58.1%✓ 61.6%✓ 65.1%✓ 51.0%✗ 51.9%✗ 52.7%✗ 56.6%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26No 50.5%Hit
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Yes 57.9%Miss
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26No 55.0%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Yes 58.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Yes 61.6%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · No at 54.3%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Roma have averaged 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, Genoa 1.0 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.5% for over 2.5 and 73.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Roma have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Genoa in 4 of 5. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Looking at totals, the model sees 47.5% for three or more goals and 73.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Roma favoured at 64.3%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

64.3%Favoured: Roma
45.7%Both Teams to Score
47.5%Over 2.5 goals

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.3% on Both Teams to Score. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 47.5% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutRoma are the model’s pick on the result at 64.3%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
RomaRoma

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GenoaGenoa
Statistic
Roma
Genoa
BTTS rate
33.3%
66.7%

clean sheets
66.7%
0.0%

goals scored per game
2.3
0.8

Bar scales · Recorded rate (%): 0–100 · Goals per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

RomaRoma (1)
Donyell Malen
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
34.7%
2.88
1+ shot on target
60.4%
1.66
2+ shots
63.9%
1.56
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots4.18
On target1.78
Goals0.82
GenoaGenoa (1)
Stephan El Shaarawy
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
7.8%
12.82
1+ shot on target
32.3%
3.10
2+ shots
21.1%
4.74
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.44
On target1.11
Goals0.23

FAQ

Did both teams score in Roma vs Genoa?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 45.7%. Both teams did not both score, final score 2-0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Both Teams to Score

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Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.