Ligue 2

Rodez vs Pau FC Double Chance

2026-08-28 · 19:00

Double Chance78.6%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Result

Rodez 2-2 Pau FC

✓ Rodez or Draw

The highest-probability cover, Rodez or Draw (78.6%), landed.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 78.6%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.

79%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Home or Draw at 78.6%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Rodez are favoured at 55.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Double Chance

★ Top coverRodez or Draw78.6%

Draw or Pau FC44.1%

Rodez or Pau FC77.3%

Draw no bet

Rodez72.4%

Pau FC27.7%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin	Probability
Rodez by 1	22.5%
Rodez by 2	17.1%
Rodez by 3+	16.3%
Pau FC by 1	13.0%
Pau FC by 2	5.9%
Pau FC by 3+	2.6%
Draw	22.7%

Goal handicap

Rodez line	Rodez	Pau FC
-2.5	16.3%	83.7%
-1.5	33.5%	66.5%
-0.5	55.9%	44.1%
+0.5	78.6%	21.4%

Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Rodez or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

55.9%Favoured: Rodez

59.1%Both Teams to Score

60.2%Over 2.5 goals

Reading the match, Rodez are favoured at 55.9%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 78.6% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.

The TacticianReads an open, higher-tempo game from the 60.2% over 2.5 read.

The ScoutRodez are the model’s pick on the result at 55.9%, context for how the goals may flow.

Form & head-to-head

RodezWWWLW

Pau FCLLLWL

Last 5 meetings: Rodez 3 · 1 draws · Pau FC 1 · 3.6 goals/game.

FAQ

Which double chance landed in Rodez vs Pau FC?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 78.6%; it landed, final score 2-2.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate

0.0097Calibration error

55,318Matches graded

In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%

7 of 10 recent calls hit.

Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss

Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit

Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit

Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit

Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Ligue 2, Double Chance

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.

Rodez vs Pau FC prediction & probabilities (2026-08-28)