Tenerife vs Sp Gijon: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Sp Gijon
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sp Gijon at 44.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 54.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 51.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Tenerife or Sp Gijon? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to Sp Gijon: 44% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 28 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 28% for Sp Gijon. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Tenerife W2 D1 L3, Sp Gijon W4 D1 L1. The recent series reads 1 wins for Tenerife, 1 draws and 3 for Sp Gijon over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. As a promoted side, Tenerife carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
28.3%-14.7%
27.7%-1.3%
44.0%+15.9%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Tenerife 1 · 1 draws · Sp Gijon 3 · 2.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.4% | Over 7.5 | 54.9% | Over 8.5 | 41.5% | Over 9.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Tenerife | 56.6% | Most: Sp Gijon | 30.3% | ||||
| Tenerife Over 4.2 | 47.0% | Sp Gijon Over 4.2 | 28.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.7% | Over 3.5 | 68.9% | Over 4.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Tenerife | 42.2% | Most: Sp Gijon | 38.8% | ||
| Tenerife Over 1.8 | 69.0% | Sp Gijon Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Tenerife clean sheet | 24.1% |
|---|---|
| Sp Gijon clean sheet | 33.4% |
| Tenerife win to nil | 15.4% |
| Sp Gijon win to nil | 24.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 28.3% | draw | 27.7% | away | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.0% | 12 | 72.3% | X2 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 39.2% | away | 60.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.1% | no | 48.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 24.1% | away | 33.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.4% | away | 24.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.1% | home_by_2 | 7.9% | home_by_3plus | 3.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.5% | away_by_2 | 13.3% | away_by_3plus | 8.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 0-1 | 10.9% | 0-2 | 8.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.9% | 0-4 | 1.4% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 4.2% | 1-4 | 1.5% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 4.8% | 2-1 | 6.9% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 1.8% | 3-1 | 2.5% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.8% | over_2.5 | 46.0% | under_2.5 | 54.0% |
| over_3.5 | 24.6% | under_3.5 | 75.4% | over_4.5 | 11.1% |
| under_4.5 | 88.9% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.5% | under_0.5 | 33.5% | over_1.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.2% | over_2.5 | 9.8% | under_2.5 | 90.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 75.9% | under_0.5 | 24.1% | over_1.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.4% | over_2.5 | 17.2% | under_2.5 | 82.8% |
most
| home | 28.3% | draw | 27.7% | away | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.4% | away_+2.5 | 96.6% | home_-1.5 | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 88.8% | home_-0.5 | 28.3% | away_+0.5 | 71.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.0% | away_-0.5 | 44.0% | home_+1.5 | 78.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.5% | home_+2.5 | 91.8% | away_-2.5 | 8.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.7% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.5% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.3% | draw | 44.4% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.1% | under_0.5 | 33.9% | over_1.5 | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.5% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
btts
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.9% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.2% | exact_4plus | 2.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 32.6% | draw | 41.9% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.9% | under_0.5 | 30.1% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 88.0% |
btts
| yes | 20.2% | no | 79.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.0% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.5% | D/D | 18.6% | D/A | 11.3% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.8% | A/A | 17.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 71.2% | under_7.5 | 28.8% | over_8.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.8% | over_9.5 | 46.9% | under_9.5 | 53.2% |
| over_10.5 | 35.2% | under_10.5 | 64.8% | over_11.5 | 25.1% |
| under_11.5 | 74.9% | over_12.5 | 17.1% | under_12.5 | 83.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.7% | under_3.5 | 26.3% | over_4.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.8% | over_5.5 | 42.7% | under_5.5 | 57.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.8% | under_3.5 | 42.2% | over_4.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.8% | over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.4% |
most
| home | 56.4% | draw | 10.8% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.8% | away_+3.5 | 75.2% | home_-1.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.4% | away_+0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.2% | away_-0.5 | 32.8% | home_+1.5 | 76.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.2% | away_-3.5 | 9.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.3% | under_22.5 | 39.7% | over_24.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.7% | over_26.5 | 34.9% | under_26.5 | 65.1% |
| over_28.5 | 24.1% | under_28.5 | 75.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.0% | under_10.5 | 25.0% | over_12.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.3% | over_14.5 | 41.8% | under_14.5 | 58.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.4% | under_10.5 | 52.6% | over_12.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.8% | over_14.5 | 16.0% | under_14.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 67.3% | draw | 5.8% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.5% | away_+4.5 | 58.5% | home_-2.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.4% | home_-0.5 | 67.3% | away_+0.5 | 32.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.1% | away_-0.5 | 26.9% | home_+2.5 | 82.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.2% | home_+4.5 | 90.0% | away_-4.5 | 10.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.4% | under_6.5 | 31.6% | over_7.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.1% | over_8.5 | 41.5% | under_8.5 | 58.5% |
| over_9.5 | 29.5% | under_9.5 | 70.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.2% | under_3.5 | 34.8% | over_4.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.0% | over_5.5 | 30.6% | under_5.5 | 69.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 46.5% | under_3.5 | 53.5% | over_4.5 | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.8% | over_5.5 | 15.2% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
most
| home | 56.6% | draw | 13.1% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.0% | away_+2.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.4% | home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.7% | away_-2.5 | 11.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.7% | under_2.5 | 15.3% | over_3.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 31.1% | over_4.5 | 50.4% | under_4.5 | 49.6% |
| over_5.5 | 33.0% | under_5.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.0% | under_1.5 | 31.0% | over_2.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.7% |
most
| home | 42.3% | draw | 19.0% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 25.1% | away_+1.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.7% | away_-1.5 | 22.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.2% | under_20.5 | 23.8% | over_22.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 36.4% | over_24.5 | 49.8% | under_24.5 | 50.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 75.9% | under_9.5 | 24.1% | over_11.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 42.7% | over_13.5 | 38.3% | under_13.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 73.6% | under_9.5 | 26.4% | over_11.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.6% | over_13.5 | 35.4% | under_13.5 | 64.6% |
most
| home | 48.6% | draw | 7.0% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.8% | away_+3.5 | 71.2% | home_-0.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.4% | home_+2.5 | 68.8% | away_-2.5 | 31.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.9% | no | 82.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.8% | no | 91.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Tenerife predictions · Sp Gijon predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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