Nancy vs Dunkerque: model prediction
Ligue 2Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Dunkerque
Nancy or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Dunkerque at 41.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Nancy versus Dunkerque on 28 August 2026 tilts towards Dunkerque in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Our number sits above the market's 34% for Dunkerque. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Nancy against W2 D1 L3 for Dunkerque. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Nancy, 1 draws and 0 for Dunkerque at 2.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.008 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
31.3%-6.5%
27.2%-1.1%
41.5%+7.6%
conservative EV -0.008 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nancy 4 · 1 draws · Dunkerque 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.3% | Over 7.5 | 56.9% | Over 8.5 | 44.5% | Over 9.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Nancy | 42.5% | Most: Dunkerque | 44.7% | ||||
| Nancy Over 4.2 | 38.9% | Dunkerque Over 4.2 | 40.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.6% | Over 3.5 | 55.8% | Over 4.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Nancy | 34.3% | Most: Dunkerque | 45.1% | ||
| Nancy Over 1.8 | 54.9% | Dunkerque Over 1.8 | 62.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Nancy clean sheet | 23.9% |
|---|---|
| Dunkerque clean sheet | 29.7% |
| Nancy win to nil | 16.1% |
| Dunkerque win to nil | 21.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 31.3% | draw | 27.2% | away | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 58.5% | 12 | 72.8% | X2 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 43.0% | away | 57.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.1% | no | 45.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 23.9% | away | 29.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 16.2% | away | 22.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.0% | home_by_2 | 9.0% | home_by_3plus | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.3% | away_by_2 | 12.5% | away_by_3plus | 7.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 0-1 | 9.6% | 0-2 | 7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.5% | 0-4 | 1.3% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 4.2% | 1-4 | 1.5% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.2% | 2-1 | 7.5% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 2.1% | 3-1 | 3.0% | 3-2 | 2.2% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.3% | under_0.5 | 7.7% | over_1.5 | 74.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.3% | over_2.5 | 49.3% | under_2.5 | 50.7% |
| over_3.5 | 27.4% | under_3.5 | 72.6% | over_4.5 | 12.9% |
| under_4.5 | 87.1% | over_5.5 | 5.3% | under_5.5 | 94.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.2% | under_0.5 | 29.8% | over_1.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.8% | over_2.5 | 12.3% | under_2.5 | 87.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 76.1% | under_0.5 | 23.9% | over_1.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.1% | over_2.5 | 17.5% | under_2.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 31.3% | draw | 27.2% | away | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.3% | away_+2.5 | 95.7% | home_-1.5 | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.7% | home_-0.5 | 31.3% | away_+0.5 | 68.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.5% | away_-0.5 | 41.5% | home_+1.5 | 79.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.2% | home_+2.5 | 92.4% | away_-2.5 | 7.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.7% | exact_1 | 17.6% | exact_2 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.5% | exact_5 | 7.7% |
| exact_6 | 3.4% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.5% | draw | 45.6% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.6% | under_0.5 | 35.4% | over_1.5 | 27.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.1% | over_2.5 | 8.8% | under_2.5 | 91.2% |
btts
| yes | 16.4% | no | 83.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.4% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.6% | exact_4plus | 2.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.6% | draw | 33.4% | away | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.9% | under_0.5 | 18.1% | over_1.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.0% | over_2.5 | 24.5% | under_2.5 | 75.5% |
btts
| yes | 32.2% | no | 67.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.0% | H/D | 6.0% | H/A | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.7% | D/D | 15.3% | D/A | 18.7% |
| A/H | 1.6% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 21.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 66.7% | under_7.5 | 33.3% | over_8.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 45.7% | over_9.5 | 42.0% | under_9.5 | 58.0% |
| over_10.5 | 30.9% | under_10.5 | 69.1% | over_11.5 | 21.6% |
| under_11.5 | 78.4% | over_12.5 | 14.4% | under_12.5 | 85.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.4% | over_5.5 | 36.2% | under_5.5 | 63.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.1% | under_3.5 | 41.9% | over_4.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.3% | over_5.5 | 26.2% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
most
| home | 51.5% | draw | 11.3% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.6% | away_+3.5 | 79.4% | home_-1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.0% | home_-0.5 | 51.5% | away_+0.5 | 48.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.8% | away_-0.5 | 37.2% | home_+1.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.9% | home_+3.5 | 88.3% | away_-3.5 | 11.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 52.8% | under_22.5 | 47.2% | over_24.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.0% | over_26.5 | 28.5% | under_26.5 | 71.5% |
| over_28.5 | 19.1% | under_28.5 | 80.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 64.5% | under_10.5 | 35.5% | over_12.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 53.2% | over_14.5 | 30.8% | under_14.5 | 69.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.3% | under_10.5 | 50.7% | over_12.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.6% | over_14.5 | 17.9% | under_14.5 | 82.1% |
most
| home | 57.7% | draw | 6.4% | away | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.9% | away_+4.5 | 68.1% | home_-2.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.7% | away_+0.5 | 42.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.1% | away_-0.5 | 35.9% | home_+2.5 | 75.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.3% | home_+4.5 | 84.8% | away_-4.5 | 15.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.3% | under_6.5 | 30.7% | over_7.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.1% | over_8.5 | 44.5% | under_8.5 | 55.5% |
| over_9.5 | 33.1% | under_9.5 | 66.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 56.3% | under_3.5 | 43.7% | over_4.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.1% | over_5.5 | 24.7% | under_5.5 | 75.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.9% | under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.5% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
most
| home | 42.5% | draw | 12.8% | away | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.4% | away_+2.5 | 79.6% | home_-0.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.5% | home_+0.5 | 55.3% | away_-0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 77.9% | away_-2.5 | 22.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.6% | under_2.5 | 24.4% | over_3.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.2% | over_4.5 | 36.3% | under_4.5 | 63.7% |
| over_5.5 | 20.8% | under_5.5 | 79.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.9% | under_1.5 | 45.1% | over_2.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.5% | under_1.5 | 37.5% | over_2.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.4% |
most
| home | 34.3% | draw | 20.6% | away | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.7% | away_+1.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.7% | home_+0.5 | 54.9% | away_-0.5 | 45.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.0% | away_-1.5 | 26.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 91.2% | under_20.5 | 8.8% | over_22.5 | 83.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 16.4% | over_24.5 | 73.0% | under_24.5 | 27.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.2% | under_9.5 | 15.8% | over_11.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.2% | over_13.5 | 48.3% | under_13.5 | 51.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 89.6% | under_9.5 | 10.4% | over_11.5 | 76.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 23.4% | over_13.5 | 59.1% | under_13.5 | 40.9% |
most
| home | 39.1% | draw | 6.8% | away | 54.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.3% | away_+3.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.9% | home_+2.5 | 59.5% | away_-2.5 | 40.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 24.6% | no | 75.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 18.4% | no | 81.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.6% | no | 92.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Nancy predictions · Dunkerque predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets