Shots
| Over 22.5 |
53.6% |
Over 24.5 |
40.7% |
Over 26.5 |
29.1% |
Over 28.5 |
19.6% |
| Most: Dunkerque |
57.1% |
Most: St Etienne |
36.5% |
| Dunkerque Over 13.2 |
38.5% |
St Etienne Over 13.2 |
24.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
70.1% |
Over 7.5 |
57.8% |
Over 8.5 |
45.3% |
Over 9.5 |
33.8% |
| Most: Dunkerque |
43.5% |
Most: St Etienne |
43.7% |
| Dunkerque Over 4.2 |
40.2% |
St Etienne Over 4.2 |
40.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
70.8% |
Over 3.5 |
49.8% |
Over 4.5 |
30.6% |
| Most: Dunkerque |
40.4% |
Most: St Etienne |
37.9% |
| Dunkerque Over 1.8 |
55.6% |
St Etienne Over 1.8 |
53.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Dunkerque clean sheet |
16.9% |
| St Etienne clean sheet |
28.3% |
| Dunkerque win to nil |
11.5% |
| St Etienne win to nil |
22.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
26.4% |
draw |
24.3% |
away |
49.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
50.7% |
12 |
75.7% |
X2 |
73.6% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
15.2% |
home_by_2 |
7.5% |
home_by_3plus |
3.7% |
| away_by_1 |
21.9% |
away_by_2 |
15.1% |
away_by_3plus |
12.3% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
5.4% |
0-1 |
8.0% |
0-2 |
7.6% |
| 0-3 |
4.5% |
0-4 |
2.0% |
0-5 |
0.7% |
| 1-0 |
5.5% |
1-1 |
11.3% |
1-2 |
9.5% |
| 1-3 |
5.7% |
1-4 |
2.5% |
1-5 |
0.9% |
| 2-0 |
3.8% |
2-1 |
6.7% |
2-2 |
6.0% |
| 2-3 |
3.6% |
2-4 |
1.6% |
2-5 |
0.6% |
| 3-0 |
1.6% |
3-1 |
2.8% |
3-2 |
2.5% |
| 3-3 |
1.5% |
3-4 |
0.7% |
3-5 |
0.2% |
| 4-0 |
0.5% |
4-1 |
0.9% |
4-2 |
0.8% |
| 4-3 |
0.5% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.2% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.3% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
94.6% |
under_0.5 |
5.4% |
over_1.5 |
81.0% |
| under_1.5 |
19.0% |
over_2.5 |
58.4% |
under_2.5 |
41.6% |
| over_3.5 |
36.0% |
under_3.5 |
64.0% |
over_4.5 |
19.1% |
| under_4.5 |
80.9% |
over_5.5 |
8.8% |
under_5.5 |
91.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
71.4% |
under_0.5 |
28.6% |
over_1.5 |
35.6% |
| under_1.5 |
64.4% |
over_2.5 |
13.2% |
under_2.5 |
86.8% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
83.1% |
under_0.5 |
16.9% |
over_1.5 |
53.1% |
| under_1.5 |
46.9% |
over_2.5 |
26.5% |
under_2.5 |
73.5% |
|
most
| home |
26.4% |
draw |
24.3% |
away |
49.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
3.7% |
away_+2.5 |
96.4% |
home_-1.5 |
11.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
88.9% |
home_-0.5 |
26.4% |
away_+0.5 |
73.6% |
| home_+0.5 |
50.7% |
away_-0.5 |
49.3% |
home_+1.5 |
72.6% |
| away_-1.5 |
27.4% |
home_+2.5 |
87.7% |
away_-2.5 |
12.3% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
5.4% |
exact_1 |
13.6% |
exact_2 |
22.7% |
| exact_3 |
22.3% |
exact_4 |
16.9% |
exact_5 |
10.3% |
| exact_6 |
5.2% |
exact_7plus |
3.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
21.9% |
draw |
36.4% |
away |
41.7% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
76.9% |
under_0.5 |
23.1% |
over_1.5 |
43.1% |
| under_1.5 |
56.9% |
over_2.5 |
18.3% |
under_2.5 |
81.7% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
23.1% |
exact_1 |
33.8% |
exact_2 |
24.8% |
| exact_3 |
12.1% |
exact_4plus |
6.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
24.9% |
draw |
33.6% |
away |
41.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
81.5% |
under_0.5 |
18.5% |
over_1.5 |
50.3% |
| under_1.5 |
49.7% |
over_2.5 |
23.9% |
under_2.5 |
76.1% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
14.3% |
H/D |
4.8% |
H/A |
2.9% |
| D/H |
9.1% |
D/D |
12.3% |
D/A |
15.1% |
| A/H |
2.1% |
A/D |
5.4% |
A/A |
34.2% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
67.1% |
under_7.5 |
32.9% |
over_8.5 |
54.7% |
| under_8.5 |
45.3% |
over_9.5 |
42.4% |
under_9.5 |
57.6% |
| over_10.5 |
31.3% |
under_10.5 |
68.7% |
over_11.5 |
22.0% |
| under_11.5 |
78.1% |
over_12.5 |
14.7% |
under_12.5 |
85.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
68.4% |
under_3.5 |
31.6% |
over_4.5 |
52.2% |
| under_4.5 |
47.9% |
over_5.5 |
36.8% |
under_5.5 |
63.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
58.0% |
under_3.5 |
42.1% |
over_4.5 |
40.6% |
| under_4.5 |
59.4% |
over_5.5 |
26.2% |
under_5.5 |
73.8% |
|
most
| home |
51.9% |
draw |
11.3% |
away |
36.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
21.1% |
away_+3.5 |
79.0% |
home_-1.5 |
40.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
59.4% |
home_-0.5 |
51.9% |
away_+0.5 |
48.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.2% |
away_-0.5 |
36.8% |
home_+1.5 |
73.4% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.6% |
home_+3.5 |
88.4% |
away_-3.5 |
11.6% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
53.6% |
under_22.5 |
46.5% |
over_24.5 |
40.7% |
| under_24.5 |
59.3% |
over_26.5 |
29.1% |
under_26.5 |
70.9% |
| over_28.5 |
19.6% |
under_28.5 |
80.4% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
64.7% |
under_10.5 |
35.3% |
over_12.5 |
46.9% |
| under_12.5 |
53.1% |
over_14.5 |
30.8% |
under_14.5 |
69.2% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
50.4% |
under_10.5 |
49.6% |
over_12.5 |
32.3% |
| under_12.5 |
67.7% |
over_14.5 |
18.6% |
under_14.5 |
81.5% |
|
most
| home |
57.1% |
draw |
6.4% |
away |
36.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
31.4% |
away_+4.5 |
68.6% |
home_-2.5 |
43.9% |
| away_+2.5 |
56.1% |
home_-0.5 |
57.1% |
away_+0.5 |
42.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
63.6% |
away_-0.5 |
36.4% |
home_+2.5 |
75.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
24.8% |
home_+4.5 |
84.4% |
away_-4.5 |
15.6% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
70.1% |
under_6.5 |
29.9% |
over_7.5 |
57.8% |
| under_7.5 |
42.2% |
over_8.5 |
45.3% |
under_8.5 |
54.7% |
| over_9.5 |
33.8% |
under_9.5 |
66.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
57.7% |
under_3.5 |
42.3% |
over_4.5 |
40.2% |
| under_4.5 |
59.8% |
over_5.5 |
25.7% |
under_5.5 |
74.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
57.8% |
under_3.5 |
42.2% |
over_4.5 |
40.3% |
| under_4.5 |
59.7% |
over_5.5 |
25.8% |
under_5.5 |
74.2% |
|
most
| home |
43.5% |
draw |
12.8% |
away |
43.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
21.2% |
away_+2.5 |
78.8% |
home_-0.5 |
43.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
56.5% |
home_+0.5 |
56.3% |
away_-0.5 |
43.7% |
| home_+2.5 |
78.7% |
away_-2.5 |
21.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
70.8% |
under_2.5 |
29.2% |
over_3.5 |
49.8% |
| under_3.5 |
50.2% |
over_4.5 |
30.6% |
under_4.5 |
69.4% |
| over_5.5 |
16.5% |
under_5.5 |
83.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
55.6% |
under_1.5 |
44.4% |
over_2.5 |
28.6% |
| under_2.5 |
71.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
53.7% |
under_1.5 |
46.3% |
over_2.5 |
27.0% |
| under_2.5 |
73.1% |
most
| home |
40.4% |
draw |
21.7% |
away |
37.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
21.7% |
away_+1.5 |
78.4% |
home_-0.5 |
40.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
59.6% |
home_+0.5 |
62.1% |
away_-0.5 |
37.9% |
| home_+1.5 |
80.3% |
away_-1.5 |
19.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
88.5% |
under_20.5 |
11.5% |
over_22.5 |
79.5% |
| under_22.5 |
20.5% |
over_24.5 |
67.5% |
under_24.5 |
32.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
84.3% |
under_9.5 |
15.7% |
over_11.5 |
68.0% |
| under_11.5 |
32.0% |
over_13.5 |
48.4% |
under_13.5 |
51.6% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
85.2% |
under_9.5 |
14.8% |
over_11.5 |
69.3% |
| under_11.5 |
30.7% |
over_13.5 |
50.0% |
under_13.5 |
50.0% |
|
most
| home |
45.4% |
draw |
7.0% |
away |
47.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.0% |
away_+3.5 |
74.0% |
home_-0.5 |
45.4% |
| away_+0.5 |
54.6% |
home_+2.5 |
66.0% |
away_-2.5 |
34.0% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 2
St Etienne