Rodez vs Pau FC: model prediction
Ligue 2Over 1.5 goals
Rodez or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Rodez at 55.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 60.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 59.1% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Rodez heavy favourites at 56% when Rodez meet Pau FC in the Ligue 2 on 28 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market broadly agrees, pricing Rodez at 57%. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 60% with both teams to score at 59%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Rodez, 1 draws and 1 for Pau FC at 3.6 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Rodez W4 D1 L1, Pau FC W1 D0 L5. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
55.9%-0.9%
22.7%-1.2%
21.4%+2.1%
value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Rodez 3 · 1 draws · Pau FC 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.30 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 37% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.4% | Over 7.5 | 60.5% | Over 8.5 | 48.3% | Over 9.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rodez | 56.6% | Most: Pau FC | 31.4% | ||||
| Rodez Over 4.2 | 51.3% | Pau FC Over 4.2 | 33.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.0% | Over 3.5 | 52.5% | Over 4.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Rodez | 32.8% | Most: Pau FC | 46.2% | ||
| Rodez Over 1.8 | 51.5% | Pau FC Over 1.8 | 61.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Rodez clean sheet | 31.3% |
|---|---|
| Pau FC clean sheet | 14.1% |
| Rodez win to nil | 26.3% |
| Pau FC win to nil | 9.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 55.9% | draw | 22.7% | away | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.6% | 12 | 77.3% | X2 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 72.4% | away | 27.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 59.1% | no | 40.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.8% | away | 14.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.8% | away | 9.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.5% | home_by_2 | 17.1% | home_by_3plus | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.0% | away_by_2 | 5.9% | away_by_3plus | 2.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.0% | 0-1 | 4.6% | 0-2 | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 1-1 | 10.5% | 1-2 | 5.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% | 3-1 | 6.4% | 3-2 | 3.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.8% | 4-1 | 3.2% | 4-2 | 1.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.3% | 5-2 | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.0% | under_0.5 | 5.0% | over_1.5 | 82.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.8% | over_2.5 | 60.2% | under_2.5 | 39.8% |
| over_3.5 | 37.9% | under_3.5 | 62.1% | over_4.5 | 20.5% |
| under_4.5 | 79.5% | over_5.5 | 9.7% | under_5.5 | 90.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.9% | under_0.5 | 14.1% | over_1.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 41.5% | over_2.5 | 31.6% | under_2.5 | 68.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.2% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
most
| home | 55.9% | draw | 22.7% | away | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.3% | away_+2.5 | 83.7% | home_-1.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.9% | away_+0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.6% | away_-0.5 | 21.4% | home_+1.5 | 91.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.0% | exact_1 | 12.8% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.4% | exact_5 | 10.9% |
| exact_6 | 5.7% | exact_7plus | 4.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.7% | draw | 37.7% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.6% | under_0.5 | 24.4% | over_1.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.8% | over_2.5 | 16.9% | under_2.5 | 83.1% |
btts
| yes | 24.8% | no | 75.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.4% | exact_1 | 34.4% | exact_2 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.4% | exact_4plus | 5.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 54.4% | draw | 29.5% | away | 16.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 83.9% | under_0.5 | 16.1% | over_1.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.5% | over_2.5 | 27.7% | under_2.5 | 72.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.6% | no | 69.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 34.2% | H/D | 3.5% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.5% | D/D | 11.1% | D/A | 6.1% |
| A/H | 5.1% | A/D | 5.9% | A/A | 12.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.1% | under_7.5 | 29.9% | over_8.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.8% | over_9.5 | 46.0% | under_9.5 | 54.0% |
| over_10.5 | 34.6% | under_10.5 | 65.4% | over_11.5 | 24.8% |
| under_11.5 | 75.3% | over_12.5 | 16.9% | under_12.5 | 83.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.9% | under_3.5 | 28.1% | over_4.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.7% | over_5.5 | 40.9% | under_5.5 | 59.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.3% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.0% | over_5.5 | 26.5% | under_5.5 | 73.5% |
most
| home | 54.6% | draw | 10.9% | away | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.5% | away_+3.5 | 76.5% | home_-1.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.6% | home_-0.5 | 54.6% | away_+0.5 | 45.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.5% | away_-0.5 | 34.5% | home_+1.5 | 75.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.8% | home_+3.5 | 89.3% | away_-3.5 | 10.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 52.4% | under_22.5 | 47.6% | over_24.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 60.4% | over_26.5 | 28.2% | under_26.5 | 71.9% |
| over_28.5 | 18.8% | under_28.5 | 81.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.0% | under_10.5 | 33.0% | over_12.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.4% | over_14.5 | 33.3% | under_14.5 | 66.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.7% | under_10.5 | 54.4% | over_12.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.9% | over_14.5 | 15.4% | under_14.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 62.1% | draw | 6.2% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.0% | away_+4.5 | 64.0% | home_-2.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.0% | home_-0.5 | 62.1% | away_+0.5 | 37.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+2.5 | 79.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.9% | home_+4.5 | 87.4% | away_-4.5 | 12.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.4% | under_6.5 | 27.7% | over_7.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.5% | over_8.5 | 48.3% | under_8.5 | 51.7% |
| over_9.5 | 36.7% | under_9.5 | 63.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.7% | under_3.5 | 32.3% | over_4.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.7% | over_5.5 | 36.0% | under_5.5 | 64.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.3% | under_3.5 | 49.7% | over_4.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.0% | over_5.5 | 19.7% | under_5.5 | 80.3% |
most
| home | 56.6% | draw | 11.9% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.4% | away_+2.5 | 67.6% | home_-0.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.4% | home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.7% | away_-2.5 | 13.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.0% | under_2.5 | 27.0% | over_3.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.5% | over_4.5 | 33.1% | under_4.5 | 66.9% |
| over_5.5 | 18.3% | under_5.5 | 81.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 51.5% | under_1.5 | 48.5% | over_2.5 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.1% | under_1.5 | 38.9% | over_2.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 32.8% | draw | 21.0% | away | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.4% | away_+1.5 | 83.6% | home_-0.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.2% | home_+0.5 | 53.8% | away_-0.5 | 46.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.5% | away_-1.5 | 26.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.2% | under_20.5 | 15.8% | over_22.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 26.7% | over_24.5 | 60.0% | under_24.5 | 40.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.3% | under_9.5 | 15.7% | over_11.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.0% | over_13.5 | 48.6% | under_13.5 | 51.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.7% | under_9.5 | 22.3% | over_11.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.5% | over_13.5 | 38.3% | under_13.5 | 61.7% |
most
| home | 53.7% | draw | 7.0% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.8% | away_+3.5 | 67.2% | home_-0.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.3% | home_+2.5 | 73.6% | away_-2.5 | 26.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 21.5% | no | 78.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.7% | no | 91.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 14.1% | no | 86.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Rodez predictions · Pau FC predictions · Ligue 2
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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