Red Star vs Metz prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

By /

Red Star vs Metz: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Red Star

WDDLW

Mon, 14 Sep 202619:45UK
Metz

WDDDW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Red Star or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Red StarWin probability
52.8%
Top 3 convictions

Red Star or draw78.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals73.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 8.5 corners53.6%Good chancePays @ 1.87

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Red Star at 53% against Metz, Ligue 2, 14 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Red Star than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Metz carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Red Star, 1 draws and 3 for Metz, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Red Star W2 D3 L1, Metz W3 D3 L0. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.6%@ 2.10
Draw or Metz47.2%@ 2.12
Over 9.5 corners42.6%@ 2.35
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.4%@ 1.91
Not both teams to score50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.12
1-0 correct score11.8%@ 8.47
2-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.90

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Red Star

52.8%+17.1%

Draw

25.9%-3.4%

Metz

21.3%-13.7%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.6%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.553.6%

Good chance

Over 9.542.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.0%

Low chance

Most cornersRed Star54.7%Metz34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.552.7%

Good chance

Over 24.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.3%

Low chance

Over 28.518.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Red Star14.0 taken11.0 faced
Metz14.2 taken14.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.4%2.547.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

Red StarWDDLW
MetzWDDDW

Last 5 meetings: Red Star 1 · 1 draws · Metz 3 · 2.4 goals/game.

2025-04-19Metz 2-2 Red Star
2024-10-29Red Star 1-0 Metz
2019-04-26Red Star 1-2 Metz
2018-12-04Metz 2-0 Red Star
2016-04-22Metz 2-0 Red Star

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Red StarMetz
League position#6 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L2-2-12-3-0
Current streakW1W1
Points per game1.601.80
Record, home vs away0-1-10-2-0
Goals scored per game1.001.60
Goals conceded per game1.200.80
1st half goals per game0.800.80
2nd half goals per game0.200.80
Corners won per game7.25.4
Cards per game3.42.2
Fouls per game14.012.8
Red cards this season11
Shots per game13.414.8
Shots faced per game11.613.2
Shots on target per game4.64.8
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

60.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%20.0%

Rates this season:Red StarMetz

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Red Star win2.501.89
Draw3.003.86
Metz win2.554.69
Over 2.5 goals1.982.10
Under 2.5 goals1.831.91

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Red Star win1.89
Draw3.86
Metz win4.70
Both teams to score2.01

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.10
Over 3.5 goals3.86
Red Star most1.89
Metz most4.70

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.48
Over 8.5 corners1.81
Over 9.5 corners2.33
Over 10.5 corners3.15
Red Star most1.83
Metz most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.90
Over 4.5 cards3.01
Over 5.5 cards5.41
Red Star most2.70
Metz most2.40

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.84
Over 8.5 SoT2.40
Over 9.5 SoT3.28
Red Star most1.98
Metz most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.90
Over 24.5 shots2.51
Over 26.5 shots3.53
Over 28.5 shots5.29
Red Star most1.62
Metz most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.30
Over 24.5 fouls1.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 52.7% Over 24.5 39.9% Over 26.5 28.3% Over 28.5 18.9%
Most: Red Star 61.9% Most: Metz 31.9%
Red Star Over 13.2 41.2% Metz Over 13.2 21.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.0% Over 7.5 54.3% Over 8.5 41.7% Over 9.5 30.5%
Most: Red Star 50.6% Most: Metz 36.5%
Red Star Over 4.2 42.7% Metz Over 4.2 32.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.2% Over 3.5 52.7% Over 4.5 33.3%
Most: Red Star 37.0% Most: Metz 41.7%
Red Star Over 1.8 54.9% Metz Over 1.8 58.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Red Star clean sheet 38.5%
Metz clean sheet 19.5%
Red Star win to nil 30.4%
Metz win to nil 11.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.8% draw 25.9% away 21.3%
double_chance
1X 78.7% 12 74.1% X2 47.2%
dnb
home 71.3% away 28.7%
btts
yes 49.8% no 50.2%
clean_sheet
home 38.8% away 19.6%
win_to_nil
home 30.6% away 11.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.2% home_by_2 16.4% home_by_3plus 12.3%
away_by_1 13.8% away_by_2 5.5% away_by_3plus 2.0%
correct_score
0-0 8.2% 0-1 6.6% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.8% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.1% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.5% 3-1 5.2% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.1% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.8% under_0.5 8.2% over_1.5 73.4%
under_1.5 26.6% over_2.5 47.6% under_2.5 52.4%
over_3.5 25.9% under_3.5 74.1% over_4.5 12.0%
under_4.5 88.1% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.6% over_1.5 48.5%
under_1.5 51.5% over_2.5 22.5% under_2.5 77.5%
team_away
over_0.5 61.2% under_0.5 38.8% over_1.5 24.5%
under_1.5 75.5% over_2.5 7.1% under_2.5 92.9%
most
home 52.8% draw 25.9% away 21.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.3% away_+2.5 87.7% home_-1.5 28.7%
away_+1.5 71.3% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 78.7% away_-0.5 21.3% home_+1.5 92.5%
away_-1.5 7.5% home_+2.5 98.0% away_-2.5 2.0%
total_exact
exact_0 8.2% exact_1 18.4% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 14.0% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.8% draw 42.3% away 29.9%
total
over_0.5 69.4% under_0.5 30.6% over_1.5 33.2%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
btts
yes 20.0% no 80.1%
total_exact
exact_0 30.6% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 8.5% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.8% draw 38.4% away 38.8%
total
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
btts
yes 23.5% no 76.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 18.9% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.9%
D/H 9.7% D/D 16.2% D/A 16.4%
A/H 1.3% A/D 4.1% A/A 24.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 67.5% under_7.5 32.5% over_8.5 55.2%
under_8.5 44.8% over_9.5 42.9% under_9.5 57.1%
over_10.5 31.7% under_10.5 68.3% over_11.5 22.3%
under_11.5 77.7% over_12.5 15.0% under_12.5 85.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.4% under_3.5 29.6% over_4.5 54.4%
under_4.5 45.6% over_5.5 39.1% under_5.5 60.9%
team_away
over_3.5 56.1% under_3.5 43.9% over_4.5 38.7%
under_4.5 61.3% over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.5%
most
home 54.8% draw 11.1% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 43.4%
away_+1.5 56.6% home_-0.5 54.8% away_+0.5 45.2%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 75.7%
away_-1.5 24.3% home_+3.5 89.7% away_-3.5 10.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 52.7% under_22.5 47.3% over_24.5 39.9%
under_24.5 60.2% over_26.5 28.3% under_26.5 71.7%
over_28.5 18.9% under_28.5 81.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.1% under_10.5 32.9% over_12.5 49.6%
under_12.5 50.4% over_14.5 33.3% under_14.5 66.7%
team_away
over_10.5 46.1% under_10.5 53.9% over_12.5 28.4%
under_12.5 71.6% over_14.5 15.6% under_14.5 84.4%
most
home 61.9% draw 6.2% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.7% away_+4.5 64.3% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 61.9% away_+0.5 38.1%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 79.0%
away_-2.5 21.0% home_+4.5 87.3% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.0% under_6.5 33.0% over_7.5 54.3%
under_7.5 45.7% over_8.5 41.7% under_8.5 58.3%
over_9.5 30.5% under_9.5 69.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.1% under_3.5 39.9% over_4.5 42.7%
under_4.5 57.3% over_5.5 27.9% under_5.5 72.1%
team_away
over_3.5 50.2% under_3.5 49.8% over_4.5 32.8%
under_4.5 67.3% over_5.5 19.5% under_5.5 80.5%
most
home 50.6% draw 12.9% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.2% away_+2.5 73.8% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5%
home_+2.5 84.1% away_-2.5 15.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.2% under_2.5 26.8% over_3.5 52.7%
under_3.5 47.3% over_4.5 33.3% under_4.5 66.7%
over_5.5 18.5% under_5.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.9% under_1.5 45.1% over_2.5 28.1%
under_2.5 72.0%
team_away
over_1.5 58.3% under_1.5 41.7% over_2.5 31.3%
under_2.5 68.7%
most
home 37.0% draw 21.3% away 41.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 37.0%
away_+0.5 63.0% home_+0.5 58.3% away_-0.5 41.7%
home_+1.5 77.0% away_-1.5 23.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.8% under_20.5 13.3% over_22.5 76.8%
under_22.5 23.2% over_24.5 64.3% under_24.5 35.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.3% under_9.5 18.7% over_11.5 63.4%
under_11.5 36.6% over_13.5 43.3% under_13.5 56.7%
team_away
over_9.5 85.1% under_9.5 14.9% over_11.5 69.2%
under_11.5 30.8% over_13.5 49.9% under_13.5 50.1%
most
home 41.9% draw 7.0% away 51.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 41.9%
away_+0.5 58.1% home_+2.5 62.9% away_-2.5 37.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.1% no 87.9%
home
yes 3.7% no 96.3%
away
yes 8.8% no 91.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Red Star predictions · Metz predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 2Red StarMetzTrack record