Ligue 1
Rennes vs 
Marseille Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.5% for over 2.5 to 17.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. On the card count, Marseille are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.5% | 27.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.8% | 82.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.2%
24.7%
60.6%
33.5%
Card handicap
| Rennes line | Rennes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rennes vs Marseille. The model leans toward Marseille for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.8%Over 3.5 cards18.0%Any red card51.2%Rennes over 1.5 cards60.6%Marseille over 1.5 cards56.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Rennes over 1.5 cards sits at 51.2% and Marseille at 60.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.0% (Rennes 6.7%, Marseille 12.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rennes vs Marseille?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.8% for Rennes vs Marseille.
Will there be a red card in Rennes vs Marseille?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rennes vs Marseille?
The model rates Marseille to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.