Shots

Over 22.5	66.9%	Over 24.5	54.6%	Over 26.5	42.3%	Over 28.5	30.9%
Most: Rennes	56.8%	Most: Marseille	37.1%
Rennes Over 13.2	48.0%	Marseille Over 13.2	34.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	77.2%	Over 7.5	66.0%	Over 8.5	53.8%	Over 9.5	41.7%
Most: Rennes	49.8%	Most: Marseille	37.9%
Rennes Over 4.2	50.5%	Marseille Over 4.2	41.9%

Cards

Over 2.5	72.4%	Over 3.5	51.8%	Over 4.5	32.4%
Most: Rennes	32.9%	Most: Marseille	45.9%
Rennes Over 1.8	51.2%	Marseille Over 1.8	60.6%

Rennes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Esteban Lepaul	2.76	1.18	0.63	61.4%	65.1%	39.8%
Ludovic Blas	2.36	0.88	0.24	45.2%	47.9%	15.1%
Mousa Al Tamari	2.4	0.87	0.21	48.1%	53.9%	14.6%
Issa Soumaré	2.25	0.85	0.24	51.6%	57.3%	18.5%
Arnaud Nordin	2.53	0.79	0.21	35.1%	40.3%	10.9%

Marseille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Amine Gouiri	3.1	1.51	0.63	65.1%	63.7%	35.6%
Igor Paixão	2.48	1.01	0.25	52.8%	55.1%	17.0%
Amine Harit	1.63	0.82	0.16	32.0%	18.0%	7.3%
Neal Maupay	1.71	0.79	0.28	37.8%	27.4%	15.5%
Angel Gomes	1.29	0.47	0.16	25.4%	19.3%	9.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Rennes clean sheet	18.6%
Marseille clean sheet	17.4%
Rennes win to nil	14.9%
Marseille win to nil	13.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	39.7%	draw	23.5%	away	36.8%

double_chance

1X	63.2%	12	76.5%	X2	60.3%

dnb

home	51.9%	away	48.1%

btts

yes	67.4%	no	32.6%

clean_sheet

home	18.8%	away	17.6%

win_to_nil

home	15.0%	away	13.8%

winning_margin

home_by_1	18.8%	home_by_2	12.0%	home_by_3plus	8.9%
away_by_1	18.0%	away_by_2	11.1%	away_by_3plus	7.8%

correct_score

0-0	3.8%	0-1	5.0%	0-2	4.6%
0-3	2.6%	0-4	1.1%	0-5	0.4%
1-0	5.3%	1-1	10.0%	1-2	8.0%
1-3	4.5%	1-4	1.9%	1-5	0.6%
2-0	5.0%	2-1	8.3%	2-2	7.0%
2-3	3.9%	2-4	1.6%	2-5	0.5%
3-0	2.9%	3-1	4.8%	3-2	4.1%
3-3	2.3%	3-4	0.9%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	1.3%	4-1	2.1%	4-2	1.8%
4-3	1.0%	4-4	0.4%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.4%	5-1	0.7%	5-2	0.6%
5-3	0.3%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.1%
other	1.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.0%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	96.2%	under_0.5	3.8%	over_1.5	86.0%
under_1.5	14.0%	over_2.5	66.3%	under_2.5	33.7%
over_3.5	44.5%	under_3.5	55.5%	over_4.5	25.9%
under_4.5	74.1%	over_5.5	13.2%	under_5.5	86.8%

odd_even

odd	49.0%	even	51.0%

team_home

over_0.5	82.4%	under_0.5	17.6%	over_1.5	52.0%
under_1.5	48.0%	over_2.5	25.4%	under_2.5	74.6%

team_away

over_0.5	81.2%	under_0.5	18.8%	over_1.5	49.8%
under_1.5	50.2%	over_2.5	23.6%	under_2.5	76.4%

most

home	39.7%	draw	23.5%	away	36.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	8.9%	away_+2.5	91.1%	home_-1.5	20.9%
away_+1.5	79.1%	home_-0.5	39.7%	away_+0.5	60.3%
home_+0.5	63.2%	away_-0.5	36.8%	home_+1.5	81.2%
away_-1.5	18.8%	home_+2.5	92.3%	away_-2.5	7.8%

total_exact

exact_0	3.8%	exact_1	10.3%	exact_2	19.6%
exact_3	21.8%	exact_4	18.6%	exact_5	12.7%
exact_6	7.2%	exact_7plus	5.9%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.8%	draw	37.7%	away	26.5%

total

over_0.5	76.0%	under_0.5	24.0%	over_1.5	41.8%
under_1.5	58.3%	over_2.5	17.3%	under_2.5	82.7%

btts

yes	25.7%	no	74.3%

total_exact

exact_0	24.0%	exact_1	34.3%	exact_2	24.4%
exact_3	11.6%	exact_4plus	5.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.9%	draw	30.3%	away	34.8%

total

over_0.5	87.3%	under_0.5	12.7%	over_1.5	61.0%
under_1.5	39.0%	over_2.5	34.0%	under_2.5	66.0%

btts

yes	41.4%	no	58.6%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	26.1%	H/D	6.1%	H/A	3.6%
D/H	13.2%	D/D	11.4%	D/A	13.1%
A/H	2.9%	A/D	4.8%	A/A	18.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.9%	under_7.5	26.1%	over_8.5	62.5%
under_8.5	37.5%	over_9.5	50.5%	under_9.5	49.5%
over_10.5	38.8%	under_10.5	61.2%	over_11.5	28.4%
under_11.5	71.6%	over_12.5	19.8%	under_12.5	80.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.9%	under_3.5	27.1%	over_4.5	57.5%
under_4.5	42.5%	over_5.5	42.2%	under_5.5	57.8%

team_away

over_3.5	62.9%	under_3.5	37.1%	over_4.5	45.9%
under_4.5	54.1%	over_5.5	30.9%	under_5.5	69.1%

most

home	52.3%	draw	10.7%	away	37.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.5%	away_+3.5	77.5%	home_-1.5	41.5%
away_+1.5	58.5%	home_-0.5	52.3%	away_+0.5	47.7%
home_+0.5	63.0%	away_-0.5	37.0%	home_+1.5	72.8%
away_-1.5	27.2%	home_+3.5	87.5%	away_-3.5	12.5%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	66.9%	under_22.5	33.1%	over_24.5	54.6%
under_24.5	45.4%	over_26.5	42.3%	under_26.5	57.7%
over_28.5	30.9%	under_28.5	69.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.9%	under_10.5	27.1%	over_12.5	56.5%
under_12.5	43.5%	over_14.5	39.9%	under_14.5	60.1%

team_away

over_10.5	60.5%	under_10.5	39.6%	over_12.5	42.3%
under_12.5	57.7%	over_14.5	26.7%	under_14.5	73.4%

most

home	56.8%	draw	6.1%	away	37.1%

handicap

home_-4.5	32.2%	away_+4.5	67.8%	home_-2.5	44.2%
away_+2.5	55.8%	home_-0.5	56.8%	away_+0.5	43.2%
home_+0.5	62.9%	away_-0.5	37.1%	home_+2.5	74.1%
away_-2.5	25.9%	home_+4.5	83.2%	away_-4.5	16.8%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	77.2%	under_6.5	22.8%	over_7.5	66.0%
under_7.5	34.0%	over_8.5	53.8%	under_8.5	46.2%
over_9.5	41.8%	under_9.5	58.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	67.6%	under_3.5	32.4%	over_4.5	50.6%
under_4.5	49.5%	over_5.5	34.7%	under_5.5	65.3%

team_away

over_3.5	59.8%	under_3.5	40.2%	over_4.5	41.9%
under_4.5	58.1%	over_5.5	26.8%	under_5.5	73.2%

most

home	49.8%	draw	12.4%	away	37.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.5%	away_+2.5	73.5%	home_-0.5	49.8%
away_+0.5	50.2%	home_+0.5	62.1%	away_-0.5	37.9%
home_+2.5	82.5%	away_-2.5	17.5%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	72.5%	under_2.5	27.6%	over_3.5	51.8%
under_3.5	48.2%	over_4.5	32.4%	under_4.5	67.6%
over_5.5	17.8%	under_5.5	82.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	51.2%	under_1.5	48.8%	over_2.5	24.7%
under_2.5	75.3%

team_away

over_1.5	60.6%	under_1.5	39.4%	over_2.5	33.5%
under_2.5	66.5%

most

home	32.9%	draw	21.2%	away	45.9%

handicap

home_-1.5	16.4%	away_+1.5	83.6%	home_-0.5	32.9%
away_+0.5	67.1%	home_+0.5	54.1%	away_-0.5	45.9%
home_+1.5	73.8%	away_-1.5	26.2%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	70.6%	under_20.5	29.4%	over_22.5	56.7%
under_22.5	43.3%	over_24.5	42.4%	under_24.5	57.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	70.2%	under_9.5	29.8%	over_11.5	49.9%
under_11.5	50.1%	over_13.5	30.9%	under_13.5	69.1%

team_away

over_9.5	71.7%	under_9.5	28.3%	over_11.5	51.8%
under_11.5	48.2%	over_13.5	32.6%	under_13.5	67.4%

most

home	45.0%	draw	7.3%	away	47.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.1%	away_+3.5	74.9%	home_-0.5	45.0%
away_+0.5	55.0%	home_+2.5	66.3%	away_-2.5	33.7%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	18.0%	no	82.0%

home

yes	6.7%	no	93.3%

away

yes	12.2%	no	87.9%