Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs 
M'gladbach Shots
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 59.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.2% for over 22.5 to 35.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. Between the two sides, RB Leipzig are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.4%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 35.9% | 64.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.3%
66.2%
50.5%
56.5%
38.5%
23.8%
Shot handicap
| RB Leipzig line | RB Leipzig | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| -2.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| -0.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| +0.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 58.5% | 41.5% |
This season (2025/26)
15.8RB Leipzig shots per game11.7M'gladbach shots per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to RB Leipzig.
In-depth analysis
59.6%Over 24.5 shots66.2%RB Leipzig over 12.5 shots38.5%M'gladbach over 12.5 shots79.0%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, RB Leipzig over 12.5 shots sits at 66.2% and M'gladbach at 38.5%. This season RB Leipzig have averaged 15.8 shots a game and M'gladbach 11.7.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 59.6% for RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach.
Which team will have more shots in RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated RB Leipzig to take more shots at 66.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.