Result

Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Expected Goals (xG)

2.41RB Leipzig xG created/game

2.06RB Leipzig xG conceded/game

1.31M'gladbach xG created/game

1.94M'gladbach xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

RB Leipzig have created 2.41 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. M'gladbach have created 1.31 xG and scored 1.17 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

60.7%Favoured: RB Leipzig

60.9%Both Teams to Score

63.3%Over 2.5 goals

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Match outlook

The model leans RB Leipzig to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 2 · 2 draws · M'gladbach 1 · 0.8 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)

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