RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach: model prediction
BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
RB Leipzig or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was RB Leipzig at 60.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 63.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 60.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: RB Leipzig at 61% against M'gladbach, Bundesliga, 29 August 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing RB Leipzig at 62%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. The run in: RB Leipzig arrive W4 D0 L2, M'gladbach W2 D2 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 2 draws and 1 for M'gladbach at 0.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
60.7%-1.0%
21.9%+1.2%
17.4%-0.2%
value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 2 · 2 draws · M'gladbach 1 · 0.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
RB Leipzig
M'gladbach70.6%52.9%
61.8%41.2%
32.4%38.2%
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 87.0% | Over 7.5 | 79.0% | Over 8.5 | 69.3% | Over 9.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RB Leipzig | 71.0% | Most: M'gladbach | 20.1% | ||||
| RB Leipzig Over 4.2 | 74.0% | M'gladbach Over 4.2 | 37.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.8% | Over 3.5 | 49.7% | Over 4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RB Leipzig | 39.2% | Most: M'gladbach | 39.0% | ||
| RB Leipzig Over 1.8 | 54.7% | M'gladbach Over 1.8 | 54.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 30.4% |
|---|---|
| M'gladbach clean sheet | 12.3% |
| RB Leipzig win to nil | 26.1% |
| M'gladbach win to nil | 8.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.8% | 12 | 78.3% | X2 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 74.3% | away | 25.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.9% | no | 39.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.1% | away | 12.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.8% | away | 8.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 17.7% | home_by_3plus | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.2% | away_by_2 | 5.5% | away_by_3plus | 2.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.3% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 1-1 | 9.8% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.9% | 3-1 | 6.8% | 3-2 | 4.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.1% | 4-1 | 3.6% | 4-2 | 2.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.4% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.7% | under_0.5 | 4.3% | over_1.5 | 84.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.9% | over_2.5 | 63.3% | under_2.5 | 36.7% |
| over_3.5 | 41.2% | under_3.5 | 58.8% | over_4.5 | 23.1% |
| under_4.5 | 76.9% | over_5.5 | 11.3% | under_5.5 | 88.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.6% | under_0.5 | 12.4% | over_1.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.1% | over_2.5 | 34.9% | under_2.5 | 65.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
most
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 18.2% | away_+2.5 | 81.8% | home_-1.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 64.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.2% | away_+0.5 | 41.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.8% | away_-0.5 | 20.2% | home_+1.5 | 92.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.9% | home_+2.5 | 97.6% | away_-2.5 | 2.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.3% | exact_1 | 11.6% | exact_2 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 18.1% | exact_5 | 11.8% |
| exact_6 | 6.4% | exact_7plus | 4.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.7% | draw | 33.8% | away | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.5% | over_1.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.1% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
btts
| yes | 22.6% | no | 77.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.5% | exact_1 | 33.6% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.4% | exact_4plus | 6.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.6% | draw | 34.6% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.6% | under_0.5 | 19.4% | over_1.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.3% | over_2.5 | 22.7% | under_2.5 | 77.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.9% | no | 69.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 42.1% | H/D | 6.9% | H/A | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.7% | D/D | 11.7% | D/A | 9.4% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 3.1% | A/A | 9.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.3% | under_7.5 | 24.7% | over_8.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.8% | over_9.5 | 52.3% | under_9.5 | 47.7% |
| over_10.5 | 40.7% | under_10.5 | 59.3% | over_11.5 | 30.2% |
| under_11.5 | 69.8% | over_12.5 | 21.3% | under_12.5 | 78.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.2% | under_3.5 | 22.8% | over_4.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.0% | over_5.5 | 48.1% | under_5.5 | 51.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 27.3% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
most
| home | 58.9% | draw | 10.1% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.1% | away_+3.5 | 71.9% | home_-1.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.8% | home_-0.5 | 58.9% | away_+0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+1.5 | 77.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.2% | home_+3.5 | 90.4% | away_-3.5 | 9.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.2% | under_22.5 | 28.8% | over_24.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 40.4% | over_26.5 | 47.6% | under_26.5 | 52.4% |
| over_28.5 | 35.9% | under_28.5 | 64.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.3% | under_10.5 | 19.8% | over_12.5 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 33.8% | over_14.5 | 50.5% | under_14.5 | 49.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.5% | under_10.5 | 43.5% | over_12.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.5% | over_14.5 | 23.8% | under_14.5 | 76.3% |
most
| home | 66.4% | draw | 5.4% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 42.4% | away_+4.5 | 57.6% | home_-2.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.4% | home_-0.5 | 66.4% | away_+0.5 | 33.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.8% | away_-0.5 | 28.2% | home_+2.5 | 81.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.3% | away_-4.5 | 11.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 87.0% | under_6.5 | 13.0% | over_7.5 | 79.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 21.0% | over_8.5 | 69.3% | under_8.5 | 30.7% |
| over_9.5 | 58.5% | under_9.5 | 41.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 85.4% | under_3.5 | 14.6% | over_4.5 | 74.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 26.0% | over_5.5 | 60.5% | under_5.5 | 39.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.8% | under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.0% | over_5.5 | 22.8% | under_5.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 71.0% | draw | 9.0% | away | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 49.4% | away_+2.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 29.0% | home_+0.5 | 80.0% | away_-0.5 | 20.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 92.1% | away_-2.5 | 7.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.8% | under_2.5 | 29.2% | over_3.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.3% | over_4.5 | 30.5% | under_4.5 | 69.5% |
| over_5.5 | 16.4% | under_5.5 | 83.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.7% | under_1.5 | 45.3% | over_2.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.5% | under_1.5 | 45.5% | over_2.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 39.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.8% | away_+1.5 | 79.2% | home_-0.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.0% | away_-0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.4% | away_-1.5 | 20.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 46.2% | under_20.5 | 53.8% | over_22.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 65.5% | over_24.5 | 24.5% | under_24.5 | 75.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 50.6% | under_9.5 | 49.4% | over_11.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.2% | over_13.5 | 20.7% | under_13.5 | 79.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 53.0% | under_9.5 | 47.0% | over_11.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.9% | over_13.5 | 22.6% | under_13.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 45.1% | draw | 6.5% | away | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.1% | away_+3.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.9% | home_+2.5 | 64.2% | away_-2.5 | 35.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.4% | no | 96.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.8% | no | 97.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: RB Leipzig predictions · M'gladbach predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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