RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach: model prediction
Bundesliga
RB LeipzigWWLWL
Sat, 29 Aug 202614:30UK
M'gladbachDDWLW
Model’s top convictions
84%
Over 1.5 goals
83%
RB Leipzig or draw
63%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
RB LeipzigWin probability
60.7%
Top 3 convictions
Over 1.5 goals84.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
RB Leipzig or draw82.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 2.5 goals63.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.58
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: RB Leipzig at 61% against M'gladbach, Bundesliga, 29 August 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 63% with both teams to score at 61%. The run in: RB Leipzig arrive W4 D0 L2, M'gladbach W2 D2 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for RB Leipzig, 2 draws and 1 for M'gladbach at 0.8 goals per match. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Draw or M'gladbach39.3%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners61.5%@ 1.63
Both teams to score60.9%@ 1.64
Over 9.5 corners50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds
1-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.18
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.22
2-0 correct score8.4%@ 11.93
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
RB Leipzig
60.7%
Draw
21.9%
M'gladbach
17.4%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.584.1%
High probability
Over 2.563.3%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes60.9%
Strong chance
Corners markets
Over 8.561.5%
Strong chance
Over 9.550.9%
Good chance
Over 10.540.6%
Toss-up
Over 11.531.4%
Toss-up
Most cornersRB Leipzig 58.7% · M'gladbach 30.9%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.1%2.563.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.3%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
RB LeipzigWWLWL
M'gladbachDDWLW
Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 2 · 2 draws · M'gladbach 1 · 0.8 goals/game.
2026-04-11RB Leipzig 1-0 M'gladbach
2025-11-28M'gladbach 0-0 RB Leipzig
2025-03-29M'gladbach 1-0 RB Leipzig
2024-11-09RB Leipzig 0-0 M'gladbach
2024-02-17RB Leipzig 2-0 M'gladbach
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
RB LeipzigM'gladbachLeague position#3 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L20-5-99-11-14
Current streakL1W1
Points per game1.911.12
Record, home vs away12-2-33-5-9
PPG, home vs away2.240.82
Goals scored per game1.941.24
Goals conceded per game1.381.56
Scored, home vs away2.351.06
Conceded, home vs away1.181.71
1st half goals per game0.940.50
2nd half goals per game1.000.74
Corners won per game5.33.8
Cards per game1.51.9
Fouls per game9.310.8
Red cards this season03
Shots on target per game6.04.2
xG for per game2.211.37
xG against per game1.571.66
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%52.9%
BTTS rate
61.8%41.2%
Clean sheets
32.4%38.2%
Rates this season:RB LeipzigM'gladbach
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
RB Leipzig win1.72
Draw4.61
M'gladbach win4.96
Both teams to score1.64
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.58
Over 3.5 goals2.43
Over 4.5 goals4.32
RB Leipzig most1.72
M'gladbach most4.96
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.46
RB Leipzig most1.70
M'gladbach most3.22
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.01
Over 4.5 cards3.28
Over 5.5 cards6.09
RB Leipzig most2.55
M'gladbach most2.56
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.15
Over 7.5 SoT1.27
Over 8.5 SoT1.44
Over 9.5 SoT1.71
RB Leipzig most1.41
M'gladbach most4.99
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.41
Over 24.5 shots1.68
Over 26.5 shots2.10
Over 28.5 shots2.79
RB Leipzig most1.51
M'gladbach most3.54
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.16
Over 22.5 fouls2.90
Over 24.5 fouls4.09
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 87.0% | Over 7.5 | 79.0% | Over 8.5 | 69.3% | Over 9.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RB Leipzig | 71.0% | Most: M'gladbach | 20.1% | ||||
| RB Leipzig Over 4.2 | 74.0% | M'gladbach Over 4.2 | 37.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.8% | Over 3.5 | 49.7% | Over 4.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: RB Leipzig | 39.2% | Most: M'gladbach | 39.0% | ||
| RB Leipzig Over 1.8 | 54.7% | M'gladbach Over 1.8 | 54.5% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.8% | 12 | 78.3% | X2 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 74.3% | away | 25.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.9% | no | 39.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.1% | away | 12.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.8% | away | 8.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 17.7% | home_by_3plus | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.2% | away_by_2 | 5.5% | away_by_3plus | 2.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.3% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 1-1 | 9.8% | 1-2 | 5.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.7% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.9% | 3-1 | 6.8% | 3-2 | 4.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.1% | 4-1 | 3.6% | 4-2 | 2.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.4% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.7% | under_0.5 | 4.3% | over_1.5 | 84.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 15.9% | over_2.5 | 63.3% | under_2.5 | 36.7% |
| over_3.5 | 41.2% | under_3.5 | 58.8% | over_4.5 | 23.1% |
| under_4.5 | 76.9% | over_5.5 | 11.3% | under_5.5 | 88.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.6% | under_0.5 | 12.4% | over_1.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.1% | over_2.5 | 34.9% | under_2.5 | 65.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
most
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 20.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 18.2% | away_+2.5 | 81.8% | home_-1.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 64.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.2% | away_+0.5 | 41.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.8% | away_-0.5 | 20.2% | home_+1.5 | 92.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.9% | home_+2.5 | 97.6% | away_-2.5 | 2.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.3% | exact_1 | 11.6% | exact_2 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 18.1% | exact_5 | 11.8% |
| exact_6 | 6.4% | exact_7plus | 4.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.7% | draw | 33.8% | away | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.5% | over_1.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.1% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
btts
| yes | 22.6% | no | 77.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.5% | exact_1 | 33.6% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.4% | exact_4plus | 6.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.6% | draw | 34.6% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.6% | under_0.5 | 19.4% | over_1.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.3% | over_2.5 | 22.7% | under_2.5 | 77.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.9% | no | 69.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 42.1% | H/D | 6.9% | H/A | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.7% | D/D | 11.7% | D/A | 9.4% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 3.1% | A/A | 9.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.3% | under_7.5 | 24.7% | over_8.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.8% | over_9.5 | 52.3% | under_9.5 | 47.7% |
| over_10.5 | 40.7% | under_10.5 | 59.3% | over_11.5 | 30.2% |
| under_11.5 | 69.8% | over_12.5 | 21.3% | under_12.5 | 78.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.2% | under_3.5 | 22.8% | over_4.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.0% | over_5.5 | 48.1% | under_5.5 | 51.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 27.3% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
most
| home | 58.9% | draw | 10.1% | away | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.1% | away_+3.5 | 71.9% | home_-1.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.8% | home_-0.5 | 58.9% | away_+0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.0% | away_-0.5 | 31.0% | home_+1.5 | 77.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.2% | home_+3.5 | 90.4% | away_-3.5 | 9.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.2% | under_22.5 | 28.8% | over_24.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 40.4% | over_26.5 | 47.6% | under_26.5 | 52.4% |
| over_28.5 | 35.9% | under_28.5 | 64.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.3% | under_10.5 | 19.8% | over_12.5 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 33.8% | over_14.5 | 50.5% | under_14.5 | 49.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.5% | under_10.5 | 43.5% | over_12.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.5% | over_14.5 | 23.8% | under_14.5 | 76.3% |
most
| home | 66.4% | draw | 5.4% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 42.4% | away_+4.5 | 57.6% | home_-2.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.4% | home_-0.5 | 66.4% | away_+0.5 | 33.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.8% | away_-0.5 | 28.2% | home_+2.5 | 81.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.3% | away_-4.5 | 11.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 87.0% | under_6.5 | 13.0% | over_7.5 | 79.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 21.0% | over_8.5 | 69.3% | under_8.5 | 30.7% |
| over_9.5 | 58.5% | under_9.5 | 41.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 85.4% | under_3.5 | 14.6% | over_4.5 | 74.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 26.0% | over_5.5 | 60.5% | under_5.5 | 39.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.8% | under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.0% | over_5.5 | 22.8% | under_5.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 71.0% | draw | 9.0% | away | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 49.4% | away_+2.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 29.0% | home_+0.5 | 80.0% | away_-0.5 | 20.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 92.1% | away_-2.5 | 7.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.8% | under_2.5 | 29.2% | over_3.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.3% | over_4.5 | 30.5% | under_4.5 | 69.5% |
| over_5.5 | 16.4% | under_5.5 | 83.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.7% | under_1.5 | 45.3% | over_2.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.5% | under_1.5 | 45.5% | over_2.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 39.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.8% | away_+1.5 | 79.2% | home_-0.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.8% | home_+0.5 | 61.0% | away_-0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.4% | away_-1.5 | 20.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 46.2% | under_20.5 | 53.8% | over_22.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 65.5% | over_24.5 | 24.5% | under_24.5 | 75.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 50.6% | under_9.5 | 49.4% | over_11.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.2% | over_13.5 | 20.7% | under_13.5 | 79.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 53.0% | under_9.5 | 47.0% | over_11.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.9% | over_13.5 | 22.6% | under_13.5 | 77.4% |
most
| home | 45.1% | draw | 6.5% | away | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.1% | away_+3.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.9% | home_+2.5 | 64.2% | away_-2.5 | 35.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.4% | no | 96.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.8% | no | 97.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: RB Leipzig predictions · M'gladbach predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.