Mainz vs Paderborn: model prediction
Bundesliga
Over 1.5 goals
Mainz or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Mainz at 60.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 61.8% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 59.6% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Mainz go into this Bundesliga meeting with Paderborn on 29 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 61%. Bookmakers see it the same way, 58% on Mainz, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 60%. The run in: Mainz arrive W2 D1 L3, Paderborn W0 D1 L5. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 3 wins for Mainz, 1 draws and 0 for Paderborn at 3.5 goals per match. Fatigue may matter, with Mainz 2149 days shorter on recovery than Paderborn. As a promoted side, Paderborn carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
60.7%+2.3%
21.9%-1.4%
17.4%-0.9%
value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Mainz 3 · 1 draws · Paderborn 0 · 3.5 goals/game.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 79.1% | Over 7.5 | 68.5% | Over 8.5 | 56.8% | Over 9.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Mainz | 53.1% | Most: Paderborn | 35.1% | ||||
| Mainz Over 4.2 | 54.8% | Paderborn Over 4.2 | 41.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.6% | Over 3.5 | 55.8% | Over 4.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Mainz | 36.0% | Most: Paderborn | 43.3% | ||
| Mainz Over 1.8 | 56.2% | Paderborn Over 1.8 | 61.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Mainz clean sheet | 31.5% |
|---|---|
| Paderborn clean sheet | 12.9% |
| Mainz win to nil | 26.9% |
| Paderborn win to nil | 8.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.9% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.1% | 12 | 78.1% | X2 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 74.5% | away | 25.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 59.6% | no | 40.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.2% | away | 12.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.5% | away | 8.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.5% | home_by_2 | 17.7% | home_by_3plus | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.2% | away_by_2 | 5.4% | away_by_3plus | 2.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.7% | 0-1 | 4.2% | 0-2 | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 1-1 | 10.0% | 1-2 | 5.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.9% | 3-1 | 6.7% | 3-2 | 3.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.5% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.1% | 4-1 | 3.5% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.5% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.4% | under_0.5 | 4.7% | over_1.5 | 83.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.9% | over_2.5 | 61.8% | under_2.5 | 38.2% |
| over_3.5 | 39.7% | under_3.5 | 60.3% | over_4.5 | 22.0% |
| under_4.5 | 78.0% | over_5.5 | 10.7% | under_5.5 | 89.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.1% | under_0.5 | 12.9% | over_1.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 39.1% | over_2.5 | 34.1% | under_2.5 | 65.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.2% | over_1.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.6% | over_2.5 | 10.7% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
most
| home | 58.2% | draw | 21.9% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 18.0% | away_+2.5 | 82.0% | home_-1.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 64.3% | home_-0.5 | 58.2% | away_+0.5 | 41.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.1% | away_-0.5 | 19.9% | home_+1.5 | 92.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.7% | home_+2.5 | 97.7% | away_-2.5 | 2.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.7% | exact_1 | 12.2% | exact_2 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 17.7% | exact_5 | 11.4% |
| exact_6 | 6.1% | exact_7plus | 4.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.5% | draw | 37.8% | away | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.7% | over_1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.2% | over_2.5 | 16.7% | under_2.5 | 83.3% |
btts
| yes | 24.6% | no | 75.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.7% | exact_1 | 34.5% | exact_2 | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.3% | exact_4plus | 5.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.3% | draw | 36.0% | away | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.7% | under_0.5 | 21.3% | over_1.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.2% | over_2.5 | 20.3% | under_2.5 | 79.7% |
btts
| yes | 29.0% | no | 71.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 29.1% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.9% | D/D | 13.6% | D/A | 12.3% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 17.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.4% | under_7.5 | 25.6% | over_8.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.9% | over_9.5 | 51.2% | under_9.5 | 48.9% |
| over_10.5 | 39.5% | under_10.5 | 60.5% | over_11.5 | 29.1% |
| under_11.5 | 70.9% | over_12.5 | 20.4% | under_12.5 | 79.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.3% | under_3.5 | 22.7% | over_4.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.9% | over_5.5 | 48.2% | under_5.5 | 51.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.3% | under_3.5 | 42.7% | over_4.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.0% | over_5.5 | 25.7% | under_5.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 60.1% | draw | 10.1% | away | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.9% | away_+3.5 | 71.1% | home_-1.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.1% | away_+0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.1% | away_-0.5 | 29.9% | home_+1.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.1% | home_+3.5 | 91.1% | away_-3.5 | 8.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.6% | under_22.5 | 31.4% | over_24.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 43.2% | over_26.5 | 44.7% | under_26.5 | 55.4% |
| over_28.5 | 33.3% | under_28.5 | 66.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.4% | under_10.5 | 23.6% | over_12.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.9% | over_14.5 | 45.0% | under_14.5 | 55.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.2% | under_10.5 | 41.9% | over_12.5 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.8% | over_14.5 | 25.2% | under_14.5 | 74.8% |
most
| home | 61.6% | draw | 5.8% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.3% | away_+4.5 | 62.7% | home_-2.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.6% | away_+0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.3% | away_-0.5 | 32.7% | home_+2.5 | 77.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.4% | home_+4.5 | 85.7% | away_-4.5 | 14.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 79.1% | under_6.5 | 20.9% | over_7.5 | 68.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 31.5% | over_8.5 | 56.8% | under_8.5 | 43.2% |
| over_9.5 | 45.0% | under_9.5 | 55.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.9% | under_3.5 | 29.1% | over_4.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.2% | over_5.5 | 39.1% | under_5.5 | 60.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.4% | under_3.5 | 40.6% | over_4.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.2% | over_5.5 | 26.9% | under_5.5 | 73.1% |
most
| home | 53.1% | draw | 11.8% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.9% | away_+2.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.9% | home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.9% | away_-2.5 | 16.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.6% | under_2.5 | 24.4% | over_3.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.2% | over_4.5 | 36.3% | under_4.5 | 63.7% |
| over_5.5 | 20.8% | under_5.5 | 79.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.2% | under_1.5 | 43.8% | over_2.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.3% | under_1.5 | 38.7% | over_2.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.7% |
most
| home | 36.0% | draw | 20.7% | away | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.0% | away_+1.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.0% | home_+0.5 | 56.7% | away_-0.5 | 43.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.5% | away_-1.5 | 24.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 49.0% | under_20.5 | 51.0% | over_22.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 62.9% | over_24.5 | 26.8% | under_24.5 | 73.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 55.0% | under_9.5 | 45.0% | over_11.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.9% | over_13.5 | 24.3% | under_13.5 | 75.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 52.4% | under_9.5 | 47.6% | over_11.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.5% | over_13.5 | 22.1% | under_13.5 | 77.9% |
most
| home | 48.7% | draw | 6.4% | away | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.4% | away_+3.5 | 69.6% | home_-0.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.3% | home_+2.5 | 67.2% | away_-2.5 | 32.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.3% | no | 90.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.2% | no | 94.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Mainz predictions · Paderborn predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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