Dortmund vs Hamburg: model prediction
Bundesliga
DortmundLWLWW
Sat, 29 Aug 202617:30UK
HamburgLLWWD
Model’s top convictions
89%
Dortmund or draw
83%
Over 1.5 goals
61%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
DortmundWin probability
71.6%
Top 3 convictions
Dortmund or draw88.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.13
Over 1.5 goals82.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 2.5 goals61.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.63
Model read
▾
Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Dortmund carry a 72% win probability against Hamburg on 29 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 61% with both teams to score at 55%. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Dortmund, 1 draws and 0 for Hamburg at 3.0 goals per match. • Form guide over the last six: Dortmund W3 D0 L3, Hamburg W2 D1 L3. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners40.3%@ 2.48
Over 11.5 corners31.1%@ 3.22
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners61.1%@ 1.64
Both teams to score55.1%@ 1.81
Over 9.5 corners50.5%@ 1.98
Random finds
2-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.69
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.20
1-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.76
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
Dortmund
71.6%
Draw
17.3%
Hamburg
11.1%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.582.9%
High probability
Over 2.561.4%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes55.1%
Good chance
Corners markets
Over 8.561.1%
Strong chance
Over 9.550.5%
Good chance
Over 10.540.3%
Toss-up
Over 11.531.1%
Toss-up
Most cornersDortmund 66.4% · Hamburg 24.1%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.582.9%2.561.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.4%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
DortmundLWLWW
HamburgLLWWD
Last 5 meetings: Dortmund 4 · 1 draws · Hamburg 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
2026-03-21Dortmund 3-2 Hamburg
2025-11-08Hamburg 1-1 Dortmund
2018-02-10Dortmund 2-0 Hamburg
2017-09-20Hamburg 0-3 Dortmund
2017-04-04Dortmund 3-0 Hamburg
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
DortmundHamburgLeague position#2 of 18#13 of 18
Record W-D-L22-7-59-11-14
Current streakW2D1
Points per game2.151.12
Record, home vs away13-2-23-5-9
PPG, home vs away2.410.82
Goals scored per game2.061.18
Goals conceded per game1.001.59
Scored, home vs away2.350.88
Conceded, home vs away0.941.88
1st half goals per game0.940.50
2nd half goals per game1.120.68
Corners won per game5.33.7
Cards per game1.92.5
Fouls per game11.711.8
Red cards this season28
Shots on target per game4.84.6
xG for per game1.991.29
xG against per game1.261.94
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%55.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%64.7%
Clean sheets
44.1%17.6%
Rates this season:DortmundHamburg
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Dortmund win1.52
Draw5.03
Hamburg win6.90
Both teams to score1.81
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.63
Over 3.5 goals2.56
Over 4.5 goals4.66
Dortmund most1.52
Hamburg most6.90
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.92
Over 10.5 corners2.48
Dortmund most1.50
Hamburg most4.15
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.32
Over 3.5 cards1.79
Over 4.5 cards2.75
Over 5.5 cards4.79
Dortmund most2.30
Hamburg most2.79
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.37
Over 8.5 SoT1.61
Over 9.5 SoT1.97
Dortmund most1.57
Hamburg most3.84
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.46
Over 24.5 shots1.77
Over 26.5 shots2.26
Over 28.5 shots3.06
Dortmund most1.45
Hamburg most3.88
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.71
Over 22.5 fouls2.14
Over 24.5 fouls2.81
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.7% | Over 7.5 | 73.2% | Over 8.5 | 62.3% | Over 9.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Dortmund | 63.5% | Most: Hamburg | 26.0% | ||||
| Dortmund Over 4.2 | 65.1% | Hamburg Over 4.2 | 37.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 75.6% | Over 3.5 | 55.9% | Over 4.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Dortmund | 43.4% | Most: Hamburg | 35.9% | ||
| Dortmund Over 1.8 | 61.5% | Hamburg Over 1.8 | 56.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 65.6% | draw | 19.9% | away | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 85.5% | 12 | 80.1% | X2 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 81.9% | away | 18.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.1% | no | 44.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 38.6% | away | 10.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.0% | away | 6.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.8% | home_by_2 | 19.8% | home_by_3plus | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.6% | away_by_2 | 3.7% | away_by_3plus | 1.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.7% | 0-1 | 3.6% | 0-2 | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.6% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 1-1 | 9.3% | 1-2 | 4.2% |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.6% | 3-1 | 7.2% | 3-2 | 3.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 4.3% | 4-1 | 4.0% | 4-2 | 1.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.9% | 5-1 | 1.8% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.4% | under_0.5 | 4.7% | over_1.5 | 82.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.1% | over_2.5 | 61.4% | under_2.5 | 38.6% |
| over_3.5 | 39.1% | under_3.5 | 60.9% | over_4.5 | 21.5% |
| under_4.5 | 78.5% | over_5.5 | 10.3% | under_5.5 | 89.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 89.1% | under_0.5 | 10.9% | over_1.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.0% | over_2.5 | 38.3% | under_2.5 | 61.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 61.4% | under_0.5 | 38.6% | over_1.5 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.3% | over_2.5 | 7.2% | under_2.5 | 92.8% |
most
| home | 65.6% | draw | 19.9% | away | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.1% | away_+2.5 | 76.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.2% | home_-0.5 | 65.6% | away_+0.5 | 34.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 85.5% | away_-0.5 | 14.5% | home_+1.5 | 95.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.9% | home_+2.5 | 98.7% | away_-2.5 | 1.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.7% | exact_1 | 12.4% | exact_2 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.7% | exact_5 | 11.2% |
| exact_6 | 5.9% | exact_7plus | 4.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.5% | draw | 35.8% | away | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.1% | under_0.5 | 25.9% | over_1.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.9% | over_2.5 | 15.5% | under_2.5 | 84.5% |
btts
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.9% | exact_1 | 35.0% | exact_2 | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.6% | exact_4plus | 4.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 52.6% | draw | 30.7% | away | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.7% | under_0.5 | 17.3% | over_1.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.7% | over_2.5 | 25.7% | under_2.5 | 74.3% |
btts
| yes | 29.4% | no | 70.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 45.8% | H/D | 4.4% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.8% | D/D | 11.0% | D/A | 6.0% |
| A/H | 2.7% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 6.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.1% | under_7.5 | 24.9% | over_8.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.1% | over_9.5 | 52.0% | under_9.5 | 48.0% |
| over_10.5 | 40.3% | under_10.5 | 59.7% | over_11.5 | 29.8% |
| under_11.5 | 70.2% | over_12.5 | 21.1% | under_12.5 | 78.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.8% | under_3.5 | 19.2% | over_4.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.2% | over_5.5 | 53.4% | under_5.5 | 46.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.3% | under_3.5 | 47.7% | over_4.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.1% | over_5.5 | 21.4% | under_5.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 66.6% | draw | 9.3% | away | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 35.1% | away_+3.5 | 64.9% | home_-1.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 43.8% | home_-0.5 | 66.6% | away_+0.5 | 33.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.9% | away_-0.5 | 24.1% | home_+1.5 | 83.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 16.4% | home_+3.5 | 93.6% | away_-3.5 | 6.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 68.3% | under_22.5 | 31.7% | over_24.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 43.6% | over_26.5 | 44.2% | under_26.5 | 55.8% |
| over_28.5 | 32.7% | under_28.5 | 67.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.0% | under_10.5 | 20.0% | over_12.5 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 34.2% | over_14.5 | 50.1% | under_14.5 | 49.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.9% | under_10.5 | 48.1% | over_12.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.9% | over_14.5 | 20.1% | under_14.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 69.0% | draw | 5.3% | away | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 45.0% | away_+4.5 | 55.0% | home_-2.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 42.7% | home_-0.5 | 69.0% | away_+0.5 | 31.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.3% | away_-0.5 | 25.8% | home_+2.5 | 83.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 16.8% | home_+4.5 | 89.8% | away_-4.5 | 10.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.7% | under_6.5 | 17.3% | over_7.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.8% | over_8.5 | 62.3% | under_8.5 | 37.7% |
| over_9.5 | 50.8% | under_9.5 | 49.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.1% | under_3.5 | 20.9% | over_4.5 | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.9% | over_5.5 | 50.1% | under_5.5 | 49.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.6% | under_3.5 | 44.4% | over_4.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.2% | over_5.5 | 23.5% | under_5.5 | 76.5% |
most
| home | 63.5% | draw | 10.5% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 40.4% | away_+2.5 | 59.6% | home_-0.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 36.5% | home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.2% | away_-2.5 | 10.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 75.6% | under_2.5 | 24.4% | over_3.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 44.1% | over_4.5 | 36.4% | under_4.5 | 63.6% |
| over_5.5 | 20.9% | under_5.5 | 79.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.5% | under_1.5 | 38.5% | over_2.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.1% | under_1.5 | 43.9% | over_2.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 43.4% | draw | 20.7% | away | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.7% | away_+1.5 | 75.4% | home_-0.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.6% | home_+0.5 | 64.1% | away_-0.5 | 35.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 81.1% | away_-1.5 | 18.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.6% | under_20.5 | 41.4% | over_22.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 53.2% | over_24.5 | 35.6% | under_24.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 62.9% | under_9.5 | 37.1% | over_11.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.6% | over_13.5 | 31.7% | under_13.5 | 68.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 57.7% | under_9.5 | 42.3% | over_11.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.2% | over_13.5 | 26.7% | under_13.5 | 73.3% |
most
| home | 50.9% | draw | 6.0% | away | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.3% | away_+3.5 | 66.7% | home_-0.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.1% | home_+2.5 | 68.4% | away_-2.5 | 31.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 21.8% | no | 78.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.7% | no | 84.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: Dortmund predictions · Hamburg predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.