Bundesliga
RB Leipzig vs 
M'gladbach Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. On the card count, RB Leipzig are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.7%
27.8%
54.5%
27.7%
Card handicap
| RB Leipzig line | RB Leipzig | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| -0.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| +0.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| +1.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.5% | 75.5% |
This season (2025/26)
1.5RB Leipzig cards per game9.3RB Leipzig fouls per game1.9M'gladbach cards per game10.8M'gladbach fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach. The model leans toward RB Leipzig for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.7%Over 3.5 cards6.1%Any red card54.7%RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards54.5%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards34.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, RB Leipzig over 1.5 cards sits at 54.7% and M'gladbach at 54.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.1% (RB Leipzig 3.4%, M'gladbach 2.8%). This season RB Leipzig have averaged 1.5 cards a game and M'gladbach 1.9.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.7% for RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach.
Will there be a red card in RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in RB Leipzig vs M'gladbach?
Before kickoff, the model rated RB Leipzig to pick up more cards at 39.2%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.