AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Bundesliga
RB LeipzigRB LeipzigLWLWW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1114:30UK3°C · Cloudy
AugsburgAugsburgLDLDL

RB Leipzig vs Augsburg shots prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined67.3%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined32.7%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 24.5 shots67.3%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges RB Leipzig.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
Model expects Shots On target
RB Leipzig 15.3 6.5
Augsburg 12.3 4.3
Both teams 27.6 10.8

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 77.7% 22.3%
24.5 shots 67.3% 32.7%
26.5 shots 55.7% 44.3%
28.5 shots 43.8% 56.2%

Who takes more shots

RB Leipzig
64.8%
Level
5.4%
Augsburg
29.8%

Team shots lines

RB Leipzig

Over 10.5
83.3%
Over 12.5
70.3%
Over 14.5
55.1%

Augsburg

Over 10.5
63.4%
Over 12.5
45.7%
Over 14.5
29.8%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Treat as a range

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 88.3% 11.7%
7.5 shots on target 80.9% 19.1%
8.5 shots on target 71.6% 28.4%
9.5 shots on target 61.1% 38.9%

Who has more on target

RB Leipzig
67.4%
Level
9.5%
Augsburg
23.1%

Team shots on target lines

RB Leipzig

Over 3.5
85.1%
Over 4.5
73.5%
Over 5.5
59.9%

Augsburg

Over 3.5
60.0%
Over 4.5
42.3%
Over 5.5
27.3%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is RB Leipzig's; Augsburg gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

RB Leipzig line RB Leipzig Augsburg
-4.5 41.1% 58.9%
-2.5 53.1% 46.9%
-0.5 64.8% 35.2%
+0.5 70.2% 29.8%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

RB Leipzig player shots
RB Leipzig 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Conrad Harder 43.8% 43.3% 3.95
Tidiam Gomis 27.5% 29.8% 3.75
Rômulo 60.2% 59.0% 2.55
Assan Ouédraogo 36.0% 43.2% 2.50
Christopher Nkunku 29.8% 41.3% 2.23
Augsburg player shots
Augsburg 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Michael Gregoritsch 47.3% 52.1% 3.05
Anton Kade 55.9% 54.6% 2.71
Mert Kömür 31.3% 39.2% 2.50
Alexis Claude Maurice 65.1% 54.8% 2.74
Rodrigo Ribeiro 44.2% 33.7% 3.54

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: RB Leipzig in their home matches and Augsburg in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only RB Leipzig's home matches and Augsburg's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: RB Leipzig's last six home league matches and Augsburg's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Recorded 2026/27

AugsburgAugsburg
This season
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Shots per game
17.8
16.2

Shots faced per game
17.0
22.0

Shots on target per game
6.5
7.0

On target faced per game
7.8
7.8

Matches with more shots
66.7%
33.3%

Matches
6
6
RB Leipzig at home, Augsburg away
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Shots per game
21.3
17.7

Shots faced per game
14.3
20.3

Shots on target per game
9.0
6.3

On target faced per game
5.7
9.0

Matches
3
3
By half, this season
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
1st-half shots
7.2
4.0

2nd-half shots
10.7
9.4

1st-half shots faced
6.8
10.0

2nd-half shots faced
10.2
12.8

1st-half shots on target
2.5
1.8 (6)

2nd-half shots on target
4.0
5.2 (6)

1st-half on target faced
3.3
3.7 (6)

2nd-half on target faced
4.5
4.2 (6)

Matches
6
5
By half, at home and away
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
1st-half shots
9.0
·

2nd-half shots
12.3
·

1st-half shots faced
6.0
·

2nd-half shots faced
8.3
·

1st-half shots on target
4.0
1.7 (3)

2nd-half shots on target
5.0
4.7 (3)

1st-half on target faced
2.3
4.0 (3)

2nd-half on target faced
3.3
5.0 (3)

Matches
3
2
Last six league matches
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Shots per game
15.8
16.7

Shots faced per game
15.3
21.2

Shots on target per game
5.7
5.7

On target faced per game
7.3
7.2

1st-half shots
5.8
5.2 (5)

2nd-half shots
10.0
8.4 (5)

1st-half shots faced
6.5
8.6 (5)

2nd-half shots faced
8.8
13.2 (5)

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
Shots per game
18.3
14.8

Shots faced per game
10.0
21.3

Shots on target per game
8.0
5.3

On target faced per game
3.7
8.3

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 31.2 shots, 11.1 on target, 12.9 in the 1st half, 18.1 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0367Calibration error
50,949Matches graded

In 2,814 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 66.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 54.7%✗ 50.1%✓ 53.8%✗ 51.6%✗ 52.8%✗ 55.8%✗ 57.3%✗ 54.2%✗ 55.6%✗ 55.0%
1 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 24.5 54.7%Miss
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Over 24.5 50.1%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Under 24.5 53.8%Hit
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 24.5 51.6%Miss
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 24.5 52.8%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 67.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.7% for over 22.5 to 43.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.7%. Between the two sides, RB Leipzig are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.8%, with a level count at 5.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, RB Leipzig over 12.5 shots sits at 70.3% and Augsburg at 45.7%. This season RB Leipzig have averaged 17.8 shots a game and Augsburg 16.2. RB Leipzig take 7.2 shots before half-time and 10.7 after, Augsburg 4.0 and 9.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

67.3%Over 24.5 shots
64.8%Most shots: RB Leipzig
70.3%RB Leipzig over 12.5 shots
45.7%Augsburg over 12.5 shots
80.9%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 67.3% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderRB Leipzig are the pick to have more shots at 64.8%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherRB Leipzig average 7.2 shots in the first half and 10.7 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 26.5 shots: over sits at 55.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The model expects about 15.3 shots for RB Leipzig and 12.3 for Augsburg, 27.6 in total, and rates over 24.5 total shots at 67.3%.
How many shots on target in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The model expects about 6.5 shots on target for RB Leipzig and 4.3 for Augsburg, and rates over 7.5 shots on target at 80.9%.
Which team will have more shots in RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?
The model rates RB Leipzig to take more shots at 64.8%.
How many shots do Augsburg take away from home?
Augsburg have taken 17.7 shots per game and faced 20.3 across 3 recorded away league matches this season.
Do RB Leipzig shoot more in the first or second half?
RB Leipzig average 7.2 shots before half-time and 10.7 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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BundesligaRB Leipzig fixtures and statsAugsburg fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.