AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
QPRQPRDDDWL
Full time5-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
SwanseaSwanseaWWWWL

QPR 5-0 Swansea cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.9%

Result

QPR5-0Swansea
5 yellow cardsQPR 2, Swansea 3
0 red cardsQPR 0, Swansea 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.1% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 95.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Sam Allison

Recorded match referee.

Sam Allison in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 116 6
Goals 2.39 3.50
Yellow cards 3.52 3.33
Red cards 0.09 0.33
Corners 10.1 11.0
Fouls 22.5 23.0
Both teams scored 44% 33%
Over 2.5 goals 40% 67%
Home wins 44% 67%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 QPR vs Swansea 5-0 5 No 5 0 14 23
13 Oct 2026 Birmingham vs Preston 4-0 4 No 3 1 9 22
12 Sep 2026 Southampton vs Bristol City 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 7 20
8 Sep 2026 Cardiff vs Stoke 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 12 24
1 Sep 2026 Portsmouth vs Derby 0-2 2 No 3 0 13 27
22 Aug 2026 Millwall vs Norwich 3-0 3 No 4 1 11 22
26 Apr 2026 Coventry vs Wrexham 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 9 24
18 Apr 2026 Derby vs Oxford 1-0 1 No 5 0 10 27
11 Apr 2026 Leicester vs Swansea 0-1 1 No 2 0 14 26
6 Apr 2026 Millwall vs Norwich 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 7 19

Sam Allison referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for QPR vs Swansea. It tips Swansea for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.1% 28.9%
3.5 cards 50.1% 49.9%
4.5 cards 30.9% 69.2%
5.5 cards 16.7% 83.3%

Who picks up more cards

QPR
35.5%
Level
21.6%
Swansea
42.9%

Team cards lines

QPR

Over 1.5
52.1%
Over 2.5
25.5%

Swansea

Over 1.5
57.5%
Over 2.5
30.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is QPR's; Swansea gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

QPR line QPR Swansea
-1.5 18.1% 82.0%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 57.1% 42.9%
+1.5 76.4% 23.6%

Red card

Any red card4.2%
QPR red card2.7%
Swansea red card1.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.6% 46.4%
22.5 fouls 37.8% 62.2%
24.5 fouls 24.3% 75.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
QPR R Ricardo 2 5.5 4.0
Swansea E Duckworth 2 4.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.1% for over 2.5 to 16.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. On the card count, Swansea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 21.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, QPR over 1.5 cards sits at 52.1% and Swansea at 57.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.2% (QPR 2.7%, Swansea 1.5%). QPR’s most frequent referee this season, R Ricardo, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

50.1%Over 3.5 cards
4.2%Any red card
42.9%Most cards: Swansea
52.1%QPR over 1.5 cards
57.5%Swansea over 1.5 cards
37.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR Ricardo, QPR’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 4.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSwansea are the pick to collect more cards at 42.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in QPR vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.1% for QPR vs Swansea.
Will there be a red card in QPR vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 4.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in QPR vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swansea to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipQPR fixtures and statsSwansea fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.