AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
QPRQPRDDWLW
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1119:45UK
BurnleyBurnleyDWDLL

QPR vs Burnley cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.9%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for QPR vs Burnley. It tips Burnley for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.8% 28.2%
3.5 cards 50.9% 49.1%
4.5 cards 31.6% 68.4%
5.5 cards 17.2% 82.8%

Who picks up more cards

QPR
32.1%
Level
21.2%
Burnley
46.7%

Team cards lines

QPR

Over 1.5
49.9%
Over 2.5
23.6%

Burnley

Over 1.5
60.5%
Over 2.5
33.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is QPR's; Burnley gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

QPR line QPR Burnley
-1.5 15.7% 84.3%
-0.5 32.1% 67.9%
+0.5 53.3% 46.7%
+1.5 73.3% 26.8%

Red card

Any red card7.1%
QPR red card2.6%
Burnley red card4.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 50.4% 49.6%
22.5 fouls 34.8% 65.3%
24.5 fouls 21.8% 78.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
QPR R Ricardo 2 5.5 4.0
Burnley A Backhouse 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

QPRQPR

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means QPR at home and Burnley away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
QPR
Burnley
Cards per game at this venue
1.8
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.8
·

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.7

Matches with card data
5
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.8% for over 2.5 to 17.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. On the card count, Burnley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, QPR over 1.5 cards sits at 49.9% and Burnley at 60.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.1% (QPR 2.6%, Burnley 4.6%). QPR’s most frequent referee this season, R Ricardo, has averaged 5.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

50.9%Over 3.5 cards
7.1%Any red card
46.7%Most cards: Burnley
49.9%QPR over 1.5 cards
60.5%Burnley over 1.5 cards
34.8%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherR Ricardo, QPR’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 7.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianBurnley are the pick to collect more cards at 46.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
QPRQPR

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
QPR
Burnley
fouls per game
8.6
10.1

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in QPR vs Burnley?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.9% for QPR vs Burnley.
Will there be a red card in QPR vs Burnley?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in QPR vs Burnley?
The model rates Burnley to pick up more cards at 46.7%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipQPR fixtures and statsBurnley fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.