AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 16 Oct 2026

Championship
PrestonPrestonLWLLD
Full time0-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
MillwallMillwallLWLDD

Preston 0-1 Millwall cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44%

Result

Preston0-1Millwall
3 yellow cardsPreston 1, Millwall 2
0 red cardsPreston 0, Millwall 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.0% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 85.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards44.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Benjamin Speedie

Recorded match referee.

Benjamin Speedie in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 97 7
Goals 2.33 1.57
Yellow cards 3.00 3.29
Red cards 0.11 0.00
Corners 10.1 10.0
Fouls 22.9 24.3
Both teams scored 43% 14%
Over 2.5 goals 38% 14%
Home wins 39% 57%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Cheltenham vs Newport CountyLeague Two 1-0 1 No 5 0 6 30
17 Oct 2026 Bristol City vs Sheffield United 0-1 1 No 2 0 8 26
10 Oct 2026 Preston vs Millwall 0-1 1 No 3 0 8 19
19 Sep 2026 Chesterfield vs YorkLeague Two 2-0 2 No 3 0 11 24
5 Sep 2026 Portsmouth vs Cardiff 2-0 2 No 4 0 12 27
29 Aug 2026 Bolton vs Lincoln 0-1 1 No 3 0 16 21
15 Aug 2026 Charlton vs Derby 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 23
25 Apr 2026 Walsall vs HarrogateLeague Two 0-2 2 No 5 0 13 25
11 Apr 2026 Cambridge vs Notts CountyLeague Two 4-0 4 No 2 1 8 21
3 Apr 2026 Leicester vs Preston 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 9 16

Benjamin Speedie referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Preston vs Millwall. It tips Preston for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.9% 34.1%
3.5 cards 44.0% 56.0%
4.5 cards 25.5% 74.5%
5.5 cards 12.9% 87.1%

Who picks up more cards

Preston
41.1%
Level
22.6%
Millwall
36.3%

Team cards lines

Preston

Over 1.5
52.3%
Over 2.5
25.7%

Millwall

Over 1.5
48.8%
Over 2.5
22.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Preston's; Millwall gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Preston line Preston Millwall
-1.5 21.5% 78.5%
-0.5 41.1% 58.9%
+0.5 63.7% 36.3%
+1.5 82.0% 18.0%

Red card

Any red card14.8%
Preston red card9.1%
Millwall red card6.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.4% 44.6%
22.5 fouls 39.6% 60.5%
24.5 fouls 25.7% 74.3%
PrestonPreston

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Preston at home and Millwall away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MillwallMillwall
Statistic
Preston
Millwall
Cards per game at this venue
2.8
1.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.0
2.8

Yellow cards per game
2.4
1.4

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.9% for over 2.5 to 12.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.0%. On the card count, Preston are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 22.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Preston over 1.5 cards sits at 52.3% and Millwall at 48.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.8% (Preston 9.1%, Millwall 6.2%). This season Preston have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Millwall 1.5.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

44.0%Over 3.5 cards
14.8%Any red card
41.1%Most cards: Preston
52.3%Preston over 1.5 cards
48.8%Millwall over 1.5 cards
39.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.8%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianPreston are the pick to collect more cards at 41.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 44.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
PrestonPreston

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MillwallMillwall
Statistic
Preston
Millwall
cards per game
2.4
1.5

fouls per game
12.0
13.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Preston vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 44.0% for Preston vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Preston vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Preston vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated Preston to pick up more cards at 41.1%, with a level count at 22.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipPreston fixtures and statsMillwall fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.