AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
PortsmouthPortsmouthLWWDW
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1119:45UK
SwanseaSwanseaWWWLL

Portsmouth vs Swansea cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Portsmouth vs Swansea. It tips Swansea for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.7% 26.3%
3.5 cards 53.4% 46.6%
4.5 cards 34.0% 66.0%
5.5 cards 19.0% 81.0%

Who picks up more cards

Portsmouth
31.2%
Level
20.7%
Swansea
48.1%

Team cards lines

Portsmouth

Over 1.5
50.8%
Over 2.5
24.4%

Swansea

Over 1.5
62.9%
Over 2.5
36.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Portsmouth's; Swansea gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Portsmouth line Portsmouth Swansea
-1.5 15.4% 84.7%
-0.5 31.2% 68.8%
+0.5 51.9% 48.1%
+1.5 71.8% 28.2%

Red card

Any red card5.2%
Portsmouth red card1.6%
Swansea red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.0% 38.0%
22.5 fouls 46.4% 53.6%
24.5 fouls 31.8% 68.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Swansea E Duckworth 2 4.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

PortsmouthPortsmouth

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Portsmouth at home and Swansea away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SwanseaSwansea
Statistic
Portsmouth
Swansea
Cards per game at this venue
1.2
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.2
·

Yellow cards per game
1.5
1.7

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
10.0%
·

Matches with card data
10
1
Red cards this season
0
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.7% for over 2.5 to 19.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Head to head on cards, Swansea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 20.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Portsmouth over 1.5 cards sits at 50.8% and Swansea at 62.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.2% (Portsmouth 1.6%, Swansea 3.7%). Swansea’s most frequent referee this season, E Duckworth, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

53.4%Over 3.5 cards
5.2%Any red card
48.1%Most cards: Swansea
50.8%Portsmouth over 1.5 cards
62.9%Swansea over 1.5 cards
46.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherE Duckworth, Swansea’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSwansea are the pick to collect more cards at 48.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
PortsmouthPortsmouth

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SwanseaSwansea
Statistic
Portsmouth
Swansea
cards per game
1.5
·

fouls per game
11.2
10.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.4% for Portsmouth vs Swansea.
Will there be a red card in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Portsmouth vs Swansea?
The model rates Swansea to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.