AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
PortsmouthPortsmouthDLWWD
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
MillwallMillwallDDWLD

Portsmouth 2-1 Millwall cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.2%

Result

Portsmouth2-1Millwall
4 yellow cardsPortsmouth 2, Millwall 2
0 red cardsPortsmouth 0, Millwall 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 53.8% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 83.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Tom Reeves

Recorded match referee.

Tom Reeves in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 76 5
Goals 2.51 2.40
Yellow cards 3.59 4.40
Red cards 0.15 0.00
Corners 10.4 11.2
Fouls 22.2 24.2
Both teams scored 53% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 47% 60%
Home wins 49% 80%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Portsmouth vs Millwall 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 10 24
10 Oct 2026 Charlton vs Bristol City 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 10 24
9 Sep 2026 Norwich vs Birmingham 2-1 3 Yes 8 0 13 21
29 Aug 2026 Charlton vs Preston 1-0 1 No 2 0 11 32
22 Aug 2026 Blackburn vs Middlesbrough 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 12 20
25 May 2026 Notts County vs SalfordLeague Two 3-0 3 No 4 Not available 5 32
2 May 2026 Cheltenham vs ColchesterLeague Two 1-4 5 Yes 2 0 10 19
25 Apr 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs TranmereLeague Two 3-0 3 No 2 0 8 15
21 Apr 2026 Norwich vs Derby 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 7 26
18 Apr 2026 Notts County vs BarnetLeague Two 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 8 28

Tom Reeves referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Portsmouth vs Millwall. It tips Millwall for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.0% 26.0%
3.5 cards 53.8% 46.2%
4.5 cards 34.3% 65.7%
5.5 cards 19.3% 80.7%

Who picks up more cards

Portsmouth
29.0%
Level
20.4%
Millwall
50.5%

Team cards lines

Portsmouth

Over 1.5
49.1%
Over 2.5
23.0%

Millwall

Over 1.5
64.6%
Over 2.5
37.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Portsmouth's; Millwall gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Portsmouth line Portsmouth Millwall
-1.5 13.9% 86.1%
-0.5 29.0% 71.0%
+0.5 49.5% 50.5%
+1.5 69.7% 30.3%

Red card

Any red card16.1%
Portsmouth red card6.4%
Millwall red card10.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.6% 37.4%
22.5 fouls 47.0% 53.0%
24.5 fouls 32.3% 67.7%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on cards, Millwall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Portsmouth over 1.5 cards sits at 49.1% and Millwall at 64.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.1% (Portsmouth 6.4%, Millwall 10.5%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.8%Over 3.5 cards
16.1%Any red card
50.5%Most cards: Millwall
49.1%Portsmouth over 1.5 cards
64.6%Millwall over 1.5 cards
47.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMillwall are the pick to collect more cards at 50.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Portsmouth vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated Millwall to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipPortsmouth fixtures and statsMillwall fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.