Serie A
Parma vs 
Monza Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 52.3% and it landed (23 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 50.2% and it landed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 47.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 59.7% for over 22.5 to 26.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.7%. On the shot count, Parma are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.1%, with a level count at 5.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.0% | 74.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.1%
53.1%
37.6%
52.9%
35.8%
22.1%
Shot handicap
| Parma line | Parma | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| -2.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| -0.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| +0.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.1% | 70.9% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Parma.
In-depth analysis
47.7%Over 24.5 shots53.1%Parma over 12.5 shots35.8%Monza over 12.5 shots50.2%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Parma over 12.5 shots sits at 53.1% and Monza at 35.8%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Parma vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 47.7% for Parma vs Monza.
Which team will have more shots in Parma vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated Parma to take more shots at 59.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.