Serie A
Parma vs 
Monza Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 52.1% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 82.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 47.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.8% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.9%. Between the two sides, Monza are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 21.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.7%
21.7%
58.6%
32.3%
Card handicap
| Parma line | Parma | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.3% | 84.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| +0.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.1% | 50.9% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Parma vs Monza. The model leans toward Monza for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
47.9%Over 3.5 cards17.7%Any red card46.7%Parma over 1.5 cards58.6%Monza over 1.5 cards62.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Parma over 1.5 cards sits at 46.7% and Monza at 58.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.7% (Parma 7.4%, Monza 11.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Parma vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 47.9% for Parma vs Monza.
Will there be a red card in Parma vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Parma vs Monza?
Before kickoff, the model rated Monza to pick up more cards at 47.4%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.