Frosinone vs Venezia prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Frosinone vs Venezia: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Serie A
Frosinone

LWLLW

Full time3-2Sun, 6 Sep 202614:00UK34°C · Clear
Venezia

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

69%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Frosinone or draw

61%

Draw or Venezia

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Frosinone 3-2 Venezia
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Frosinone at 39.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 57.8% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.1% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 78.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 51.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 60.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.2% and it landed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.0% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.3% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.4% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 92.0% and it landed.

Match data Frosinone Venezia
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 2
Shots 13 15
Shots, 1st half 5 5
Shots, 2nd half 7 10
Shots on target 8 4
Corners 5 2
Yellow cards 2 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 18 14
Expected goals (xG) 1.79 2.44

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
FrosinoneWin probability
39.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals69.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Frosinone or draw68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Draw or Venezia60.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Frosinone at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 6 September 2026. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 49%. For shots markets, Romano Schmid is the obvious watch at 0.5 on target per 90 in recent data. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 34 degrees of heat. Frosinone are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Frosinone arrive W2 D1 L3, Venezia W1 D1 L4. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals42.2%@ 2.37
Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Over 10.5 corners31.9%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals57.8%@ 1.73
Not both teams to score51.3%@ 1.95
Over 8.5 corners50.3%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.27
1-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.14
0-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.97

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Frosinone

39.2%

Draw

29.1%

Venezia

31.8%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.3%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.5%

Low chance

Most cornersFrosinone52.7%Venezia36.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.1%2.542.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.1%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

FrosinoneLWLLW
VeneziaWLLLL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FrosinoneVenezia
League position#9 of 20#19 of 20
Record W-D-L1-0-10-0-2
Current streakW1L2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Romano SchmidFrosinone · key player
To score12.8%

@ 7.81

1+ on target41.2%

@ 2.43

2+ shots46.6%

@ 2.15

Shots/90 1.6SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.14
Akor AdamsVenezia · key player
To score21.1%

@ 4.74

1+ on target53.4%

@ 1.87

2+ shots53.1%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.47SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.33
Alessio ZerbinFrosinone · in form
To score2.0%

@ 50.00

1+ on target21.3%

@ 4.69

2+ shots15.8%

@ 6.33

Shots/90 1.06SoT/90 0.36Goals/90 0.03
John YeboahVenezia · in form
To score3.0%

@ 33.33

1+ on target29.1%

@ 3.44

2+ shots26.5%

@ 3.77

Shots/90 2.3SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.07
Florian GrillitschFrosinone · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target13.3%

@ 7.52

2+ shots5.6%

@ 17.86

Shots/90 0.61SoT/90 0.23Goals/90 0
Toma BasicVenezia · in form
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target38.0%

@ 2.63

2+ shots33.8%

@ 2.96

Shots/90 1.41SoT/90 0.56Goals/90 0.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Frosinone win2.63
Draw3.43
Venezia win3.05
Both teams to score2.05

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.45
Over 2.5 goals2.37
Over 3.5 goals4.66
Frosinone most2.63
Venezia most3.05

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60
Over 8.5 corners1.94
Over 9.5 corners2.45
Over 10.5 corners3.20
Frosinone most1.89
Venezia most2.71

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.02
Over 5.5 cards5.32
Frosinone most2.99
Venezia most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.43
Over 9.5 SoT3.21
Frosinone most1.93
Venezia most2.75

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.69
Over 28.5 shots3.72
Frosinone most1.66
Venezia most2.94

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.29
Over 22.5 fouls1.52
Over 24.5 fouls1.90
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.1% Over 7.5 52.4% Over 8.5 41.2% Over 9.5 31.2%
Most: Frosinone 51.7% Most: Venezia 36.4%
Frosinone Over 4.2 42.6% Venezia Over 4.2 31.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.1% Over 3.5 52.0% Over 4.5 33.1%
Most: Frosinone 33.5% Most: Venezia 45.8%
Frosinone Over 1.8 51.1% Venezia Over 1.8 60.0%

Frosinone: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Romano Schmid 1.6 0.54 0.14 41.2% 46.6% 12.8%
Alessio Zerbin 1.06 0.36 0.03 21.3% 15.8% 2.0%
Florian Grillitsch 0.61 0.23 0 13.3% 5.6% 0.0%
Patrizio Masini 0.77 0.15 0.03 8.6% 7.9% 1.8%

Venezia: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Akor Adams 2.47 1.06 0.33 53.4% 53.1% 21.1%
John Yeboah 2.3 0.79 0.07 29.1% 26.5% 3.0%
Toma Basic 1.41 0.56 0.09 38.0% 33.8% 7.4%
Kike Pérez 1.24 0.45 0.12 28.1% 23.1% 8.4%
Simon Sohm 0.83 0.23 0.08 15.8% 12.9% 5.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Frosinone clean sheet 32.2%
Venezia clean sheet 29.0%
Frosinone win to nil 22.2%
Venezia win to nil 19.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.0% draw 29.2% away 32.8%
double_chance
1X 67.2% 12 70.9% X2 62.0%
dnb
home 53.7% away 46.3%
btts
yes 48.7% no 51.3%
clean_sheet
home 32.3% away 29.0%
win_to_nil
home 22.3% away 19.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.2% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 5.7%
away_by_1 19.3% away_by_2 9.3% away_by_3plus 4.2%
correct_score
0-0 10.0% 0-1 9.9% 0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.9% 1-1 13.8% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.8% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 8.1% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.0% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.0% under_0.5 10.0% over_1.5 69.1%
under_1.5 30.9% over_2.5 42.2% under_2.5 57.8%
over_3.5 21.4% under_3.5 78.6% over_4.5 9.2%
under_4.5 90.8% over_5.5 3.4% under_5.5 96.6%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 71.0% under_0.5 29.0% over_1.5 35.1%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.9% under_2.5 87.2%
team_away
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
most
home 38.0% draw 29.2% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.7% away_+2.5 94.3% home_-1.5 16.9%
away_+1.5 83.2% home_-0.5 38.0% away_+0.5 62.0%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 86.5%
away_-1.5 13.5% home_+2.5 95.8% away_-2.5 4.2%
total_exact
exact_0 10.0% exact_1 20.9% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 20.7% exact_4 12.3% exact_5 5.8%
exact_6 2.3% exact_7plus 1.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.8% draw 48.5% away 20.7%
total
over_0.5 60.1% under_0.5 39.9% over_1.5 23.4%
under_1.5 76.6% over_2.5 6.6% under_2.5 93.4%
btts
yes 13.2% no 86.8%
total_exact
exact_0 39.9% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 16.8%
exact_3 5.2% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 48.5% draw 36.3% away 15.2%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 39.9%
under_1.5 60.1% over_2.5 16.0% under_2.5 84.0%
btts
yes 20.8% no 79.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.0% H/D 3.1% H/A 0.7%
D/H 23.5% D/D 17.6% D/A 7.4%
A/H 3.4% A/D 5.5% A/A 11.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.5% under_7.5 37.5% over_8.5 51.4%
under_8.5 48.6% over_9.5 40.8% under_9.5 59.2%
over_10.5 31.3% under_10.5 68.8% over_11.5 23.2%
under_11.5 76.9% over_12.5 16.6% under_12.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.6% under_3.5 35.4% over_4.5 50.0%
under_4.5 50.0% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.7% over_4.5 38.0%
under_4.5 62.0% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 52.8% draw 10.3% away 36.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.2% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-1.5 42.4%
away_+1.5 57.6% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 36.9% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 86.7% away_-3.5 13.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.7% under_22.5 39.3% over_24.5 48.7%
under_24.5 51.3% over_26.5 37.2% under_26.5 62.8%
over_28.5 26.9% under_28.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.4% under_10.5 29.6% over_12.5 54.6%
under_12.5 45.4% over_14.5 39.1% under_14.5 60.9%
team_away
over_10.5 52.8% under_10.5 47.2% over_12.5 35.6%
under_12.5 64.4% over_14.5 21.9% under_14.5 78.1%
most
home 60.2% draw 5.8% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.3% away_+4.5 63.7% home_-2.5 48.2%
away_+2.5 51.8% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.8%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+2.5 76.4%
away_-2.5 23.6% home_+4.5 84.7% away_-4.5 15.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.1% under_6.5 35.9% over_7.5 52.4%
under_7.5 47.6% over_8.5 41.2% under_8.5 58.8%
over_9.5 31.2% under_9.5 68.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.8% over_4.5 42.6%
under_4.5 57.4% over_5.5 29.5% under_5.5 70.5%
team_away
over_3.5 47.3% under_3.5 52.7% over_4.5 31.8%
under_4.5 68.3% over_5.5 20.0% under_5.5 80.1%
most
home 51.7% draw 11.9% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.0% away_+2.5 71.1% home_-0.5 51.7%
away_+0.5 48.3% home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4%
home_+2.5 82.9% away_-2.5 17.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.1% under_2.5 27.9% over_3.5 52.0%
under_3.5 48.0% over_4.5 33.1% under_4.5 66.9%
over_5.5 18.8% under_5.5 81.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 25.4%
under_2.5 74.7%
team_away
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 33.8%
under_2.5 66.2%
most
home 33.5% draw 20.7% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 33.5%
away_+0.5 66.5% home_+0.5 54.2% away_-0.5 45.8%
home_+1.5 73.4% away_-1.5 26.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 77.4% under_20.5 22.6% over_22.5 65.6%
under_22.5 34.4% over_24.5 52.6% under_24.5 47.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 73.5% under_9.5 26.5% over_11.5 55.1%
under_11.5 44.9% over_13.5 36.8% under_13.5 63.2%
team_away
over_9.5 77.1% under_9.5 22.9% over_11.5 59.7%
under_11.5 40.3% over_13.5 41.4% under_13.5 58.6%
most
home 43.4% draw 6.6% away 50.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-0.5 43.4%
away_+0.5 56.6% home_+2.5 63.1% away_-2.5 36.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.0% no 92.0%
home
yes 3.6% no 96.4%
away
yes 4.5% no 95.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Frosinone predictions · Venezia predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

More on this match

Serie AFrosinoneVeneziaTrack record