Shots

Over 22.5	57.8%	Over 24.5	45.7%	Over 26.5	34.3%	Over 28.5	24.3%
Most: Lecce	58.3%	Most: Monza	35.7%
Lecce Over 13.2	43.1%	Monza Over 13.2	27.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	62.7%	Over 7.5	50.7%	Over 8.5	39.3%	Over 9.5	29.3%
Most: Lecce	45.6%	Most: Monza	42.0%
Lecce Over 4.2	37.3%	Monza Over 4.2	34.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	69.1%	Over 3.5	48.3%	Over 4.5	29.8%
Most: Lecce	34.2%	Most: Monza	44.4%
Lecce Over 1.8	49.3%	Monza Over 1.8	56.8%

Lecce: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Willem Geubbels	2.51	0.79	0.39	32.1%	34.8%	17.4%
Konan N’Dri	3.11	0.7	0.2	15.7%	17.6%	4.8%
Medon Berisha	2.61	0.57	0.11	29.3%	47.1%	6.5%
Nikola Stulic	1.85	0.54	0.19	25.9%	27.4%	10.0%
Omri Gandelman	0.93	0.28	0.19	14.0%	9.1%	9.8%

Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Patrick Cutrone	2.77	0.95	0.22	47.0%	55.3%	13.7%
Andrea Colpani	2.17	0.72	0.18	37.9%	42.1%	11.2%
Samuele Birindelli	0.97	0.63	0.17	39.6%	18.2%	12.7%
Dany Mota	1.98	0.52	0.22	32.2%	43.6%	15.2%
Michael Folorunsho	1.63	0.35	0.06	20.0%	28.0%	3.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lecce clean sheet	33.4%
Monza clean sheet	31.8%
Lecce win to nil	22.0%
Monza win to nil	20.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	36.2%	draw	30.1%	away	33.7%

double_chance

1X	66.3%	12	69.9%	X2	63.8%

dnb

home	51.7%	away	48.3%

btts

yes	46.2%	no	53.8%

clean_sheet

home	33.4%	away	31.8%

win_to_nil

home	22.1%	away	20.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.9%	home_by_2	10.4%	home_by_3plus	4.9%
away_by_1	20.0%	away_by_2	9.5%	away_by_3plus	4.2%

correct_score

0-0	11.3%	0-1	11.0%	0-2	6.4%
0-3	2.3%	0-4	0.6%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.5%	1-1	13.9%	1-2	7.3%
1-3	2.7%	1-4	0.8%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	6.9%	2-1	7.6%	2-2	4.2%
2-3	1.6%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	2.7%	3-1	2.9%	3-2	1.6%
3-3	0.6%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	0.8%	4-1	0.9%	4-2	0.5%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.0%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.2%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	88.7%	under_0.5	11.3%	over_1.5	66.2%
under_1.5	33.8%	over_2.5	39.0%	under_2.5	61.0%
over_3.5	19.1%	under_3.5	80.9%	over_4.5	7.9%
under_4.5	92.1%	over_5.5	2.8%	under_5.5	97.2%

odd_even

odd	48.1%	even	51.9%

team_home

over_0.5	68.2%	under_0.5	31.8%	over_1.5	31.9%
under_1.5	68.1%	over_2.5	11.0%	under_2.5	89.0%

team_away

over_0.5	66.6%	under_0.5	33.4%	over_1.5	30.1%
under_1.5	69.9%	over_2.5	10.0%	under_2.5	90.0%

most

home	36.2%	draw	30.1%	away	33.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	4.9%	away_+2.5	95.1%	home_-1.5	15.3%
away_+1.5	84.8%	home_-0.5	36.2%	away_+0.5	63.8%
home_+0.5	66.3%	away_-0.5	33.7%	home_+1.5	86.3%
away_-1.5	13.7%	home_+2.5	95.8%	away_-2.5	4.2%

total_exact

exact_0	11.3%	exact_1	22.4%	exact_2	27.2%
exact_3	19.9%	exact_4	11.2%	exact_5	5.1%
exact_6	1.9%	exact_7plus	0.9%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.2%	draw	41.3%	away	31.6%

total

over_0.5	70.8%	under_0.5	29.2%	over_1.5	34.9%
under_1.5	65.1%	over_2.5	12.8%	under_2.5	87.3%

btts

yes	21.1%	no	78.9%

total_exact

exact_0	29.2%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.1%
exact_3	9.1%	exact_4plus	3.7%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	33.1%	draw	42.7%	away	24.2%

total

over_0.5	68.6%	under_0.5	31.4%	over_1.5	32.2%
under_1.5	67.8%	over_2.5	11.2%	under_2.5	88.8%

btts

yes	19.1%	no	80.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	21.9%	H/D	4.1%	H/A	1.2%
D/H	13.7%	D/D	17.6%	D/A	10.0%
A/H	2.2%	A/D	6.0%	A/A	23.3%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	61.1%	under_7.5	38.9%	over_8.5	49.8%
under_8.5	50.2%	over_9.5	39.0%	under_9.5	61.0%
over_10.5	29.4%	under_10.5	70.6%	over_11.5	21.5%
under_11.5	78.5%	over_12.5	15.1%	under_12.5	84.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	64.4%	under_3.5	35.6%	over_4.5	49.6%
under_4.5	50.4%	over_5.5	36.2%	under_5.5	63.8%

team_away

over_3.5	51.6%	under_3.5	48.4%	over_4.5	36.2%
under_4.5	63.8%	over_5.5	23.8%	under_5.5	76.1%

most

home	53.7%	draw	10.5%	away	35.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.3%	away_+3.5	75.7%	home_-1.5	43.0%
away_+1.5	57.0%	home_-0.5	53.7%	away_+0.5	46.4%
home_+0.5	64.1%	away_-0.5	35.9%	home_+1.5	73.6%
away_-1.5	26.4%	home_+3.5	87.6%	away_-3.5	12.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	57.8%	under_22.5	42.2%	over_24.5	45.7%
under_24.5	54.3%	over_26.5	34.3%	under_26.5	65.7%
over_28.5	24.3%	under_28.5	75.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	67.5%	under_10.5	32.5%	over_12.5	51.1%
under_12.5	48.9%	over_14.5	35.6%	under_14.5	64.4%

team_away

over_10.5	52.1%	under_10.5	47.9%	over_12.5	34.9%
under_12.5	65.1%	over_14.5	21.3%	under_14.5	78.7%

most

home	58.3%	draw	5.9%	away	35.7%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.1%	away_+4.5	65.9%	home_-2.5	46.0%
away_+2.5	54.0%	home_-0.5	58.3%	away_+0.5	41.7%
home_+0.5	64.3%	away_-0.5	35.7%	home_+2.5	75.1%
away_-2.5	25.0%	home_+4.5	83.8%	away_-4.5	16.2%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	62.7%	under_6.5	37.3%	over_7.5	50.7%
under_7.5	49.3%	over_8.5	39.3%	under_8.5	60.7%
over_9.5	29.3%	under_9.5	70.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	53.2%	under_3.5	46.8%	over_4.5	37.3%
under_4.5	62.7%	over_5.5	24.5%	under_5.5	75.5%

team_away

over_3.5	50.6%	under_3.5	49.4%	over_4.5	34.7%
under_4.5	65.3%	over_5.5	22.3%	under_5.5	77.8%

most

home	45.7%	draw	12.4%	away	42.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	23.5%	away_+2.5	76.4%	home_-0.5	45.7%
away_+0.5	54.4%	home_+0.5	58.0%	away_-0.5	42.0%
home_+2.5	79.3%	away_-2.5	20.8%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	69.1%	under_2.5	30.9%	over_3.5	48.4%
under_3.5	51.7%	over_4.5	29.8%	under_4.5	70.2%
over_5.5	16.3%	under_5.5	83.7%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	49.3%	under_1.5	50.7%	over_2.5	23.8%
under_2.5	76.1%

team_away

over_1.5	56.8%	under_1.5	43.2%	over_2.5	30.7%
under_2.5	69.3%

most

home	34.2%	draw	21.4%	away	44.4%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.3%	away_+1.5	82.7%	home_-0.5	34.2%
away_+0.5	65.8%	home_+0.5	55.6%	away_-0.5	44.4%
home_+1.5	74.9%	away_-1.5	25.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	77.2%	under_20.5	22.8%	over_22.5	65.4%
under_22.5	34.6%	over_24.5	52.4%	under_24.5	47.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	72.9%	under_9.5	27.1%	over_11.5	54.4%
under_11.5	45.6%	over_13.5	36.2%	under_13.5	63.8%

team_away

over_9.5	77.3%	under_9.5	22.8%	over_11.5	60.0%
under_11.5	40.0%	over_13.5	41.9%	under_13.5	58.1%

most

home	42.7%	draw	6.6%	away	50.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.7%	away_+3.5	75.3%	home_-0.5	42.7%
away_+0.5	57.3%	home_+2.5	62.3%	away_-2.5	37.7%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	8.3%	no	91.7%

home

yes	4.4%	no	95.6%

away

yes	4.1%	no	95.9%