Parma vs Monza prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Parma vs Monza: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 6 Sep 2026

Serie A
Parma

LLWLL

Full time1-1Sun, 6 Sep 202614:00UK33°C · Clearing
Monza

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

69%

Parma or draw

64%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

Over 1.5 goals

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Parma 1-1 Monza
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Parma at 38.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 64.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 63.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 83.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 56.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 61.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 62.2% and it landed (9 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 52.1% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.3% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 50.2% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 82.4% and it landed.

Match data Parma Monza
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 7 16
Shots, 1st half 3 8
Shots, 2nd half 4 8
Shots on target 3 5
Corners 6 3
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 16
Expected goals (xG) 0.62 2.10

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ParmaWin probability
38.5%
Top 3 convictions

Parma or draw69.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Under 2.5 goals64.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.56
Over 1.5 goals63.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Parma and Monza almost evenly, Parma marginally on top at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 36% with both teams to score at 43%. • Conditions could matter: the forecast says 33 degrees of heat. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Parma, 1 draws and 0 for Monza over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. As a promoted side, Monza carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Parma W1 D0 L5, Monza W1 D0 L5. For shots markets, El Bilal Touré is the obvious watch at 0.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.5%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners37.8%@ 2.65
Over 2.5 goals35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Draw or Monza61.5%@ 1.63
Not both teams to score56.6%@ 1.77
Random finds

1-1 correct score14.1%@ 7.10
1-0 correct score12.7%@ 7.89
0-0 correct score12.6%@ 7.93

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Parma

38.5%

Draw

30.7%

Monza

30.8%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.563.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.535.8%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes43.4%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.537.8%

Toss-up

Over 10.529.3%

Low chance

Over 11.522.1%

Low chance

Most cornersParma53.1%Monza36.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.7%

Good chance

Over 24.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.563.4%2.535.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.563.4%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ParmaLLWLL
MonzaWLLLL

Last 2 meetings: Parma 1 · 1 draws · Monza 0 · 2.5 goals/game.

2025-03-15Monza 1-1 Parma
2024-12-28Parma 2-1 Monza

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ParmaMonza
League position#17 of 20#18 of 20
Record W-D-L0-0-20-0-2
Current streakL2L2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

El Bilal TouréParma · key player
To score14.3%

@ 6.99

1+ on target26.5%

@ 3.77

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.36
Patrick CutroneMonza · key player
To score13.7%

@ 7.30

1+ on target47.0%

@ 2.13

2+ shots55.3%

@ 1.81

Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.22
Pontus AlmqvistParma · in form
To score2.4%

@ 41.67

1+ on target19.9%

@ 5.03

2+ shots15.9%

@ 6.29

Shots/90 1.76SoT/90 0.55Goals/90 0.06
Andrea ColpaniMonza · in form
To score12.0%

@ 8.33

1+ on target36.8%

@ 2.72

2+ shots42.8%

@ 2.34

Shots/90 2.16SoT/90 0.68Goals/90 0.19
Adrián BernabéParma · in form
To score7.2%

@ 13.89

1+ on target27.7%

@ 3.61

2+ shots41.1%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 1.69SoT/90 0.39Goals/90 0.09
Samuele BirindelliMonza · in form
To score13.3%

@ 7.52

1+ on target40.6%

@ 2.46

2+ shots17.6%

@ 5.68

Shots/90 0.96SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Parma win2.68
Draw3.22
Monza win3.16
Both teams to score2.30

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.14
Over 1.5 goals1.58
Over 2.5 goals2.80
Over 3.5 goals6.00
Parma most2.68
Monza most3.16

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.68
Over 8.5 corners2.07
Over 9.5 corners2.65
Over 10.5 corners3.52
Parma most1.88
Monza most2.76

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.45
Over 3.5 cards2.09
Over 4.5 cards3.40
Over 5.5 cards6.25
Parma most3.19
Monza most2.11

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.61
Over 7.5 SoT1.99
Over 8.5 SoT2.57
Over 9.5 SoT3.44
Parma most2.13
Monza most2.46

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.10
Over 26.5 shots2.76
Over 28.5 shots3.84
Parma most1.69
Monza most2.85

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.34
Over 22.5 fouls1.60
Over 24.5 fouls2.04
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 62.1% Over 7.5 50.2% Over 8.5 39.0% Over 9.5 29.1%
Most: Parma 47.0% Most: Monza 40.7%
Parma Over 4.2 38.0% Monza Over 4.2 33.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.8% Over 3.5 47.9% Over 4.5 29.4%
Most: Parma 31.4% Most: Monza 47.4%
Parma Over 1.8 46.7% Monza Over 1.8 58.6%

Parma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
El Bilal Touré 2.34 0.72 0.36 26.5% 26.4% 14.3%
Pontus Almqvist 1.76 0.55 0.06 19.9% 15.9% 2.4%
Adrián Bernabé 1.69 0.39 0.09 27.7% 41.1% 7.2%
Enrico Del Prato 0.48 0.21 0.09 18.3% 7.9% 8.3%
Emanuele Valeri 0.85 0.18 0.03 15.0% 17.9% 2.7%

Monza: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Patrick Cutrone 2.77 0.95 0.22 47.0% 55.3% 13.7%
Andrea Colpani 2.16 0.68 0.19 36.8% 42.8% 12.0%
Samuele Birindelli 0.96 0.66 0.18 40.6% 17.6% 13.3%
Dany Mota 1.91 0.49 0.22 30.7% 41.8% 15.2%
Michael Folorunsho 1.58 0.36 0.07 20.3% 26.3% 4.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Parma clean sheet 36.5%
Monza clean sheet 32.6%
Parma win to nil 23.9%
Monza win to nil 20.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.4% draw 31.0% away 31.6%
double_chance
1X 68.4% 12 69.0% X2 62.6%
dnb
home 54.2% away 45.8%
btts
yes 43.4% no 56.6%
clean_sheet
home 36.6% away 32.7%
win_to_nil
home 23.9% away 20.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 10.7% home_by_3plus 4.9%
away_by_1 19.5% away_by_2 8.7% away_by_3plus 3.5%
correct_score
0-0 12.6% 0-1 11.3% 0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.7% 1-1 14.1% 1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.3% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 7.5% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.3% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 2.8% 3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 14.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 87.4% under_0.5 12.6% over_1.5 63.4%
under_1.5 36.6% over_2.5 35.8% under_2.5 64.2%
over_3.5 16.7% under_3.5 83.3% over_4.5 6.5%
under_4.5 93.5% over_5.5 2.2% under_5.5 97.8%
odd_even
odd 47.9% even 52.1%
team_home
over_0.5 67.4% under_0.5 32.7% over_1.5 30.8%
under_1.5 69.2% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
team_away
over_0.5 63.4% under_0.5 36.6% over_1.5 26.7%
under_1.5 73.3% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
most
home 37.4% draw 31.0% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.9% away_+2.5 95.1% home_-1.5 15.6%
away_+1.5 84.4% home_-0.5 37.4% away_+0.5 62.6%
home_+0.5 68.4% away_-0.5 31.6% home_+1.5 87.9%
away_-1.5 12.1% home_+2.5 96.5% away_-2.5 3.5%
total_exact
exact_0 12.6% exact_1 24.0% exact_2 27.6%
exact_3 19.1% exact_4 10.2% exact_5 4.3%
exact_6 1.5% exact_7plus 0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.2% draw 48.0% away 24.8%
total
over_0.5 61.2% under_0.5 38.8% over_1.5 24.4%
under_1.5 75.6% over_2.5 7.1% under_2.5 92.9%
btts
yes 14.2% no 85.8%
total_exact
exact_0 38.8% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 17.4%
exact_3 5.5% exact_4plus 1.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.9% draw 37.9% away 25.2%
total
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
btts
yes 25.1% no 74.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.5% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.4%
D/H 17.7% D/D 18.2% D/A 12.1%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.3% A/A 17.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 59.6% under_7.5 40.4% over_8.5 48.3%
under_8.5 51.7% over_9.5 37.8% under_9.5 62.2%
over_10.5 28.4% under_10.5 71.6% over_11.5 20.7%
under_11.5 79.3% over_12.5 14.6% under_12.5 85.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.1% under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 48.4%
under_4.5 51.6% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 50.8% under_3.5 49.2% over_4.5 35.5%
under_4.5 64.5% over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
most
home 53.3% draw 10.5% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-1.5 42.6%
away_+1.5 57.4% home_-0.5 53.3% away_+0.5 46.7%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+1.5 73.3%
away_-1.5 26.7% home_+3.5 87.5% away_-3.5 12.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.7% under_22.5 40.3% over_24.5 47.7%
under_24.5 52.3% over_26.5 36.2% under_26.5 63.8%
over_28.5 26.0% under_28.5 74.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.1% under_10.5 30.9% over_12.5 53.1%
under_12.5 46.9% over_14.5 37.6% under_14.5 62.5%
team_away
over_10.5 52.9% under_10.5 47.1% over_12.5 35.8%
under_12.5 64.2% over_14.5 22.1% under_14.5 77.9%
most
home 59.1% draw 5.9% away 35.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.0% away_+4.5 65.0% home_-2.5 46.9%
away_+2.5 53.1% home_-0.5 59.1% away_+0.5 40.9%
home_+0.5 64.9% away_-0.5 35.1% home_+2.5 75.5%
away_-2.5 24.5% home_+4.5 84.0% away_-4.5 16.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 62.1% under_6.5 37.9% over_7.5 50.2%
under_7.5 49.8% over_8.5 39.0% under_8.5 61.0%
over_9.5 29.1% under_9.5 70.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.7% under_3.5 46.3% over_4.5 38.0%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
team_away
over_3.5 49.2% under_3.5 50.8% over_4.5 33.5%
under_4.5 66.5% over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
most
home 47.0% draw 12.3% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.8% away_+2.5 75.2% home_-0.5 47.0%
away_+0.5 53.0% home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7%
home_+2.5 80.1% away_-2.5 19.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.8% under_2.5 31.2% over_3.5 47.9%
under_3.5 52.1% over_4.5 29.4% under_4.5 70.6%
over_5.5 16.0% under_5.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 46.7% under_1.5 53.3% over_2.5 21.7%
under_2.5 78.3%
team_away
over_1.5 58.6% under_1.5 41.4% over_2.5 32.3%
under_2.5 67.7%
most
home 31.4% draw 21.2% away 47.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.3% away_+1.5 84.7% home_-0.5 31.4%
away_+0.5 68.6% home_+0.5 52.6% away_-0.5 47.4%
home_+1.5 72.6% away_-1.5 27.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.8% under_20.5 25.2% over_22.5 62.4%
under_22.5 37.6% over_24.5 49.1% under_24.5 50.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.5% under_9.5 34.5% over_11.5 45.6%
under_11.5 54.4% over_13.5 28.0% under_13.5 72.0%
team_away
over_9.5 79.9% under_9.5 20.1% over_11.5 63.5%
under_11.5 36.5% over_13.5 45.5% under_13.5 54.5%
most
home 34.2% draw 6.4% away 59.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.0% away_+3.5 82.0% home_-0.5 34.2%
away_+0.5 65.9% home_+2.5 54.0% away_-2.5 46.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.7% no 82.4%
home
yes 7.4% no 92.6%
away
yes 11.0% no 89.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Parma predictions · Monza predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AParmaMonzaTrack record