Shots

Over 22.5	58.0%	Over 24.5	45.8%	Over 26.5	34.4%	Over 28.5	24.5%
Most: Lazio	58.9%	Most: Milan	35.2%
Lazio Over 13.2	43.6%	Milan Over 13.2	27.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	63.6%	Over 7.5	51.7%	Over 8.5	40.3%	Over 9.5	30.2%
Most: Lazio	49.0%	Most: Milan	38.8%
Lazio Over 4.2	40.3%	Milan Over 4.2	33.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	77.5%	Over 3.5	59.1%	Over 4.5	40.3%
Most: Lazio	33.2%	Most: Milan	47.3%
Lazio Over 1.8	55.5%	Milan Over 1.8	65.3%

Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Andrea Pinamonti	2.5	0.98	0.3	55.8%	61.5%	22.1%
Gustav Isaksen	2.42	0.95	0.18	45.9%	46.4%	11.0%
Tijjani Noslin	2.65	0.93	0.29	27.9%	23.9%	9.7%
Albert Gudmundsson	1.82	0.76	0.3	40.7%	35.6%	18.7%
Matteo Cancellieri	1.81	0.69	0.16	35.6%	32.1%	9.7%

Milan: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Gonçalo Ramos	4.38	2.12	0.59	67.7%	67.7%	27.0%
Samuel Chukwueze	2.5	0.74	0.26	28.7%	31.6%	11.2%
Adrien Rabiot	1.7	0.6	0.27	43.1%	47.4%	22.4%
Alexis Saelemaekers	1.43	0.44	0.21	29.9%	32.1%	15.6%
Ardon Jashari	0.93	0.35	0	16.3%	8.2%	0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lazio clean sheet	30.1%
Milan clean sheet	32.7%
Lazio win to nil	19.6%
Milan win to nil	22.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	33.2%	draw	29.5%	away	37.3%

double_chance

1X	62.7%	12	70.5%	X2	66.8%

dnb

home	47.1%	away	52.9%

btts

yes	47.7%	no	52.3%

clean_sheet

home	30.1%	away	32.7%

win_to_nil

home	19.6%	away	22.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	19.6%	home_by_2	9.4%	home_by_3plus	4.2%
away_by_1	21.1%	away_by_2	10.9%	away_by_3plus	5.4%

correct_score

0-0	10.5%	0-1	11.2%	0-2	7.1%
0-3	2.8%	0-4	0.9%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	10.3%	1-1	13.9%	1-2	7.9%
1-3	3.2%	1-4	1.0%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	6.2%	2-1	7.4%	2-2	4.4%
2-3	1.8%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	2.3%	3-1	2.8%	3-2	1.7%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	0.6%	4-1	0.8%	4-2	0.5%
4-3	0.2%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.2%	5-2	0.1%
5-3	0.0%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.3%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	89.5%	under_0.5	10.5%	over_1.5	68.0%
under_1.5	32.0%	over_2.5	40.9%	under_2.5	59.1%
over_3.5	20.5%	under_3.5	79.5%	over_4.5	8.6%
under_4.5	91.4%	over_5.5	3.1%	under_5.5	96.9%

odd_even

odd	48.2%	even	51.8%

team_home

over_0.5	67.3%	under_0.5	32.7%	over_1.5	30.8%
under_1.5	69.2%	over_2.5	10.4%	under_2.5	89.6%

team_away

over_0.5	69.9%	under_0.5	30.1%	over_1.5	33.8%
under_1.5	66.2%	over_2.5	12.1%	under_2.5	87.9%

most

home	33.2%	draw	29.5%	away	37.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	4.2%	away_+2.5	95.8%	home_-1.5	13.7%
away_+1.5	86.3%	home_-0.5	33.2%	away_+0.5	66.8%
home_+0.5	62.7%	away_-0.5	37.3%	home_+1.5	83.8%
away_-1.5	16.2%	home_+2.5	94.6%	away_-2.5	5.4%

total_exact

exact_0	10.5%	exact_1	21.5%	exact_2	27.1%
exact_3	20.4%	exact_4	11.9%	exact_5	5.5%
exact_6	2.1%	exact_7plus	1.0%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	22.2%	draw	51.8%	away	26.0%

total

over_0.5	55.8%	under_0.5	44.2%	over_1.5	19.7%
under_1.5	80.3%	over_2.5	5.0%	under_2.5	95.0%

btts

yes	11.2%	no	88.8%

total_exact

exact_0	44.2%	exact_1	36.1%	exact_2	14.7%
exact_3	4.0%	exact_4plus	1.0%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	29.1%	draw	38.3%	away	32.6%

total

over_0.5	75.3%	under_0.5	24.7%	over_1.5	40.7%
under_1.5	59.3%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

btts

yes	25.3%	no	74.8%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	15.9%	H/D	4.4%	H/A	1.9%
D/H	15.1%	D/D	19.9%	D/A	16.9%
A/H	1.8%	A/D	4.7%	A/A	19.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	60.3%	under_7.5	39.7%	over_8.5	48.9%
under_8.5	51.1%	over_9.5	38.1%	under_9.5	61.9%
over_10.5	28.7%	under_10.5	71.3%	over_11.5	20.8%
under_11.5	79.2%	over_12.5	14.6%	under_12.5	85.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.1%	under_3.5	34.9%	over_4.5	50.4%
under_4.5	49.6%	over_5.5	37.0%	under_5.5	63.1%

team_away

over_3.5	49.5%	under_3.5	50.5%	over_4.5	34.1%
under_4.5	65.9%	over_5.5	22.1%	under_5.5	77.9%

most

home	55.5%	draw	10.4%	away	34.1%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.6%	away_+3.5	74.4%	home_-1.5	44.8%
away_+1.5	55.2%	home_-0.5	55.5%	away_+0.5	44.5%
home_+0.5	66.0%	away_-0.5	34.1%	home_+1.5	75.3%
away_-1.5	24.8%	home_+3.5	88.8%	away_-3.5	11.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	58.0%	under_22.5	42.0%	over_24.5	45.8%
under_24.5	54.2%	over_26.5	34.4%	under_26.5	65.6%
over_28.5	24.5%	under_28.5	75.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	68.0%	under_10.5	32.1%	over_12.5	51.6%
under_12.5	48.4%	over_14.5	36.1%	under_14.5	63.9%

team_away

over_10.5	51.8%	under_10.5	48.2%	over_12.5	34.6%
under_12.5	65.4%	over_14.5	21.1%	under_14.5	78.9%

most

home	58.9%	draw	5.9%	away	35.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	34.6%	away_+4.5	65.4%	home_-2.5	46.6%
away_+2.5	53.4%	home_-0.5	58.9%	away_+0.5	41.1%
home_+0.5	64.8%	away_-0.5	35.2%	home_+2.5	75.5%
away_-2.5	24.5%	home_+4.5	84.1%	away_-4.5	15.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	63.6%	under_6.5	36.4%	over_7.5	51.7%
under_7.5	48.3%	over_8.5	40.3%	under_8.5	59.7%
over_9.5	30.2%	under_9.5	69.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	56.2%	under_3.5	43.8%	over_4.5	40.3%
under_4.5	59.7%	over_5.5	27.2%	under_5.5	72.8%

team_away

over_3.5	48.9%	under_3.5	51.2%	over_4.5	33.0%
under_4.5	67.0%	over_5.5	20.9%	under_5.5	79.1%

most

home	49.0%	draw	12.2%	away	38.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.4%	away_+2.5	73.6%	home_-0.5	49.0%
away_+0.5	51.0%	home_+0.5	61.3%	away_-0.5	38.8%
home_+2.5	81.5%	away_-2.5	18.5%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	77.5%	under_2.5	22.5%	over_3.5	59.1%
under_3.5	40.9%	over_4.5	40.3%	under_4.5	59.8%
over_5.5	24.6%	under_5.5	75.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	55.5%	under_1.5	44.5%	over_2.5	29.4%
under_2.5	70.6%

team_away

over_1.5	65.3%	under_1.5	34.7%	over_2.5	39.5%
under_2.5	60.5%

most

home	33.2%	draw	19.5%	away	47.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.6%	away_+1.5	82.4%	home_-0.5	33.2%
away_+0.5	66.8%	home_+0.5	52.7%	away_-0.5	47.3%
home_+1.5	71.3%	away_-1.5	28.7%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	66.8%	under_20.5	33.2%	over_22.5	53.2%
under_22.5	46.8%	over_24.5	39.7%	under_24.5	60.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	64.1%	under_9.5	35.9%	over_11.5	44.1%
under_11.5	55.9%	over_13.5	26.8%	under_13.5	73.2%

team_away

over_9.5	71.2%	under_9.5	28.8%	over_11.5	52.4%
under_11.5	47.6%	over_13.5	34.3%	under_13.5	65.7%

most

home	40.8%	draw	6.9%	away	52.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.5%	away_+3.5	77.5%	home_-0.5	40.8%
away_+0.5	59.2%	home_+2.5	61.5%	away_-2.5	38.6%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	17.8%	no	82.2%

home

yes	6.0%	no	94.0%

away

yes	12.5%	no	87.5%