AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
OsnabruckOsnabruckWLDDL
Full time3-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1012:30UK
Greuther FurthGreuther FurthLDDLW

Osnabruck 3-0 Greuther Furth cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined62.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37.9%

Result

Osnabruck3-0Greuther Furth
1 yellow cardsOsnabruck 1, Greuther Furth 0
0 red cardsOsnabruck 0, Greuther Furth 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 62.1% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 89.8% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards62.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth. Slightly more cards are projected for Osnabruck for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.1% 19.9%
3.5 cards 62.1% 37.9%
4.5 cards 42.8% 57.2%
5.5 cards 26.2% 73.8%

Who picks up more cards

Osnabruck
40.6%
Level
19.9%
Greuther Furth
39.5%

Team cards lines

Osnabruck

Over 1.5
63.6%
Over 2.5
36.7%

Greuther Furth

Over 1.5
62.8%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Osnabruck's; Greuther Furth gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Osnabruck line Osnabruck Greuther Furth
-1.5 23.1% 77.0%
-0.5 40.6% 59.4%
+0.5 60.5% 39.5%
+1.5 77.8% 22.2%

Red card

Any red card10.2%
Osnabruck red card4.7%
Greuther Furth red card5.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%
22.5 fouls 49.9% 50.1%
24.5 fouls 35.7% 64.3%
OsnabruckOsnabruck

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Osnabruck at home and Greuther Furth away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Greuther FurthGreuther Furth
Statistic
Osnabruck
Greuther Furth
Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.2

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.0
1.0

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 62.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.1% for over 2.5 to 26.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.8%. Between the two sides, Osnabruck are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 19.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Osnabruck over 1.5 cards sits at 63.6% and Greuther Furth at 62.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.2% (Osnabruck 4.7%, Greuther Furth 5.8%).

62.1%Over 3.5 cards
10.2%Any red card
40.6%Most cards: Osnabruck
63.6%Osnabruck over 1.5 cards
62.8%Greuther Furth over 1.5 cards
49.9%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 62.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.2%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianOsnabruck are the pick to collect more cards at 40.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 42.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
OsnabruckOsnabruck

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Greuther FurthGreuther Furth
Statistic
Osnabruck
Greuther Furth
fouls per game
11.3
8.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.1% for Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth.
Will there be a red card in Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Osnabruck to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaOsnabruck fixtures and statsGreuther Furth fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.