AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
NurnbergNurnbergDWWDD
Full time0-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1019:30UK
KaiserslauternKaiserslauternWLWDW

Nurnberg 0-1 Kaiserslautern cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined65.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined34.3%

Result

Nurnberg0-1Kaiserslautern
5 yellow cardsNurnberg 0, Kaiserslautern 5
0 red cardsNurnberg 0, Kaiserslautern 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 65.7% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 93.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards65.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Max Burda

Recorded match referee.

Max Burda in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 18 4
Goals 3.39 Not available
Yellow cards 5.33 Not available
Red cards 0.06 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 24.8 Not available
Both teams scored 72% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 67% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern 0-1 1 No 5 0 14 25
10 Oct 2026 Mainz vs LeverkusenBundesliga 3-4 7 Yes 4 0 7 21
5 Sep 2026 Paderborn vs FreiburgBundesliga 0-1 1 No 6 0 9 26
14 Aug 2026 Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli 2-2 4 Yes 6 0 10 33
17 May 2026 Magdeburg vs Kaiserslautern 0-1 1 No 4 0 3 21
18 Apr 2026 Hannover vs Paderborn 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 28
5 Apr 2026 Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster 0-0 0 No 6 0 14 27
7 Mar 2026 Bochum vs Kaiserslautern 3-2 5 Yes 7 0 11 24
8 Feb 2026 Bielefeld vs Braunschweig 3-2 5 Yes 4 0 10 24
24 Jan 2026 Magdeburg vs Dresden 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 15 18

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern. The model leans toward Kaiserslautern for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 82.6% 17.4%
3.5 cards 65.7% 34.3%
4.5 cards 46.7% 53.3%
5.5 cards 29.6% 70.4%

Who picks up more cards

Nurnberg
37.0%
Level
19.4%
Kaiserslautern
43.7%

Team cards lines

Nurnberg

Over 1.5
63.4%
Over 2.5
36.5%

Kaiserslautern

Over 1.5
67.8%
Over 2.5
41.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Nurnberg's; Kaiserslautern gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Nurnberg line Nurnberg Kaiserslautern
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 37.0% 63.1%
+0.5 56.3% 43.7%
+1.5 74.1% 25.9%

Red card

Any red card6.1%
Nurnberg red card4.5%
Kaiserslautern red card1.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.9% 26.1%
22.5 fouls 60.6% 39.4%
24.5 fouls 46.4% 53.6%
NurnbergNurnberg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Nurnberg at home and Kaiserslautern away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

KaiserslauternKaiserslautern
Statistic
Nurnberg
Kaiserslautern
Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
2.2

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 65.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.6% for over 2.5 to 29.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.7%. On the card count, Kaiserslautern are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 19.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Nurnberg over 1.5 cards sits at 63.4% and Kaiserslautern at 67.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.1% (Nurnberg 4.5%, Kaiserslautern 1.8%).

65.7%Over 3.5 cards
6.1%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Kaiserslautern
63.4%Nurnberg over 1.5 cards
67.8%Kaiserslautern over 1.5 cards
60.6%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 65.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianKaiserslautern are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 46.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
NurnbergNurnberg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

KaiserslauternKaiserslautern
Statistic
Nurnberg
Kaiserslautern
fouls per game
10.8
11.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 65.7% for Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern.
Will there be a red card in Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kaiserslautern to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaNurnberg fixtures and statsKaiserslautern fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.