Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs 
Spurs Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.6% for over 7.5 to 21.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. On the corner count, Nottingham Forest are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 10.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.2%
58.5%
43.9%
62.1%
45.7%
31.3%
Corner handicap
| Nottingham Forest line | Nottingham Forest | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| -0.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| +0.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Nottingham Forest.
In-depth analysis
By team, Nottingham Forest over 4.5 corners sits at 58.5% and Spurs at 45.7%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Nottingham Forest vs Spurs?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.8% for Nottingham Forest vs Spurs.
Which team will win the corner count in Nottingham Forest vs Spurs?
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the corner count at 53.3%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.