Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs 
Spurs Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.5% for over 22.5 to 30.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. Head to head on shots, Nottingham Forest are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.8%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.6%
56.5%
41.4%
55.0%
38.3%
24.5%
Shot handicap
| Nottingham Forest line | Nottingham Forest | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| -2.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Nottingham Forest.
In-depth analysis
52.0%Over 24.5 shots56.5%Nottingham Forest over 12.5 shots38.3%Spurs over 12.5 shots57.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Nottingham Forest over 12.5 shots sits at 56.5% and Spurs at 38.3%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Nottingham Forest vs Spurs?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.0% for Nottingham Forest vs Spurs.
Which team will have more shots in Nottingham Forest vs Spurs?
The model rates Nottingham Forest to take more shots at 59.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.