Salford vs Newport County: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

League Two

Salford

WDLLL

Full time2-1Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK

Newport County

WWWLD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Salford or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Salford 2-1 Newport County

✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Salford at 52.1%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 66.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 81.0% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.1% and it landed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.1% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.2% and it missed (36 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.0% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 89.9% and it landed.

Match data	Salford	Newport County
Goals, 1st half	0	0
Goals, 2nd half	2	1
Shots	32	4
Shots on target	7	2
Corners	10	0
Yellow cards	1	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	11	19

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

SalfordWin probability

52.1%

Top 3 convictions

Salford or draw77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30

Over 1.5 goals76.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.30

Over 8.5 corners60.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Salford at 52% against Newport County, League Two, 1 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Salford higher (65%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The recent series reads 2 wins for Salford, 1 draws and 2 for Newport County over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Salford against W3 D1 L2 for Newport County. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Newport County47.9%@ 2.09

Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52

Over 11.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28

Medium risk

Both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86

Over 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92

Over 9.5 corners50.0%@ 2.00

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.38

1-0 correct score10.2%@ 9.79

2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.30

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Salford

52.1%-12.5%

Draw

25.1%+3.6%

Newport

22.8%+8.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.0%

Good chance

Over 10.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersSalford62.4%Newport County27.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.547.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.8%2.552.2%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

SalfordWDLLL

Newport CountyWWWLD

Last 5 meetings: Salford 2 · 1 draws · Newport County 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-17Salford 1-3 Newport County

2025-08-19Newport County 0-1 Salford

2025-01-28Salford 1-1 Newport County

2024-10-01Newport County 3-1 Salford

2024-04-20Newport County 0-1 Salford

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SalfordNewport County

League position#23 of 24#11 of 24

Record W-D-L0-0-31-1-1

Current streakL3D1

Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Salford win1.461.92

Draw4.103.98

Newport County win6.004.39

Over 2.5 goals1.601.92

Under 2.5 goals2.302.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Salford win1.92

Draw3.99

Newport County win4.39

Both teams to score1.85

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07

Over 1.5 goals1.30

Over 2.5 goals1.92

Over 3.5 goals3.33

Salford most1.92

Newport County most4.39

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35

Over 8.5 corners1.59

Over 9.5 corners1.96

Over 10.5 corners2.52

Salford most1.60

Newport County most3.62

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39

Over 3.5 cards1.96

Over 4.5 cards3.15

Over 5.5 cards5.77

Salford most2.58

Newport County most2.52

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50

Over 7.5 SoT1.85

Over 8.5 SoT2.40

Over 9.5 SoT3.26

Salford most1.58

Newport County most3.95

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.65

Over 24.5 shots2.09

Over 26.5 shots2.81

Over 28.5 shots4.00

Salford most1.50

Newport County most3.61

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.37

Over 22.5 fouls1.71

Over 24.5 fouls2.31

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	66.5%	Over 7.5	54.0%	Over 8.5	41.7%	Over 9.5	30.7%
Most: Salford	63.1%	Most: Newport County	25.3%
Salford Over 4.2	51.1%	Newport County Over 4.2	23.8%

Cards

Over 2.5	71.9%	Over 3.5	51.1%	Over 4.5	31.8%
Most: Salford	38.8%	Most: Newport County	39.7%
Salford Over 1.8	55.2%	Newport County Over 1.8	55.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Salford clean sheet	34.6%
Newport County clean sheet	18.1%
Salford win to nil	27.7%
Newport County win to nil	11.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	52.1%	draw	25.1%	away	22.8%

double_chance

1X	77.2%	12	74.9%	X2	47.9%

dnb

home	69.6%	away	30.4%

btts

yes	53.9%	no	46.1%

clean_sheet

home	34.8%	away	18.1%

win_to_nil

home	28.0%	away	11.2%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.3%	home_by_2	16.2%	home_by_3plus	12.7%
away_by_1	14.2%	away_by_2	6.2%	away_by_3plus	2.5%

correct_score

0-0	6.9%	0-1	6.1%	0-2	3.5%
0-3	1.2%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	10.2%	1-1	11.9%	1-2	6.0%
1-3	2.1%	1-4	0.6%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.2%	2-1	9.7%	2-2	5.1%
2-3	1.8%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.2%	3-1	5.5%	3-2	2.9%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.2%	4-1	2.4%	4-2	1.3%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.8%	5-1	0.8%	5-2	0.4%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.9%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.9%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.1%	under_0.5	6.9%	over_1.5	76.8%
under_1.5	23.2%	over_2.5	52.2%	under_2.5	47.8%
over_3.5	30.0%	under_3.5	70.0%	over_4.5	14.7%
under_4.5	85.3%	over_5.5	6.2%	under_5.5	93.8%

odd_even

odd	48.7%	even	51.3%

team_home

over_0.5	81.9%	under_0.5	18.1%	over_1.5	50.9%
under_1.5	49.1%	over_2.5	24.5%	under_2.5	75.5%

team_away

over_0.5	65.2%	under_0.5	34.8%	over_1.5	28.4%
under_1.5	71.6%	over_2.5	9.1%	under_2.5	90.9%

most

home	52.1%	draw	25.1%	away	22.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	12.7%	away_+2.5	87.4%	home_-1.5	28.8%
away_+1.5	71.2%	home_-0.5	52.1%	away_+0.5	47.9%
home_+0.5	77.2%	away_-0.5	22.8%	home_+1.5	91.4%
away_-1.5	8.6%	home_+2.5	97.5%	away_-2.5	2.5%

total_exact

exact_0	6.9%	exact_1	16.3%	exact_2	24.7%
exact_3	22.2%	exact_4	15.3%	exact_5	8.5%
exact_6	3.9%	exact_7plus	2.3%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.5%	draw	43.5%	away	21.0%

total

over_0.5	66.9%	under_0.5	33.1%	over_1.5	30.3%
under_1.5	69.7%	over_2.5	10.1%	under_2.5	89.9%

btts

yes	17.3%	no	82.7%

total_exact

exact_0	33.1%	exact_1	36.6%	exact_2	20.3%
exact_3	7.5%	exact_4plus	2.6%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	45.2%	draw	33.4%	away	21.4%

total

over_0.5	81.0%	under_0.5	19.1%	over_1.5	49.4%
under_1.5	50.6%	over_2.5	23.2%	under_2.5	76.8%

btts

yes	29.8%	no	70.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	29.6%	H/D	4.4%	H/A	1.5%
D/H	19.7%	D/D	14.5%	D/A	9.3%
A/H	3.3%	A/D	5.0%	A/A	12.7%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.1%	under_7.5	25.9%	over_8.5	62.9%
under_8.5	37.1%	over_9.5	51.1%	under_9.5	48.9%
over_10.5	39.7%	under_10.5	60.3%	over_11.5	29.4%
under_11.5	70.6%	over_12.5	20.9%	under_12.5	79.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	78.4%	under_3.5	21.6%	over_4.5	64.6%
under_4.5	35.4%	over_5.5	49.9%	under_5.5	50.1%

team_away

over_3.5	55.3%	under_3.5	44.7%	over_4.5	38.0%
under_4.5	62.0%	over_5.5	24.0%	under_5.5	76.0%

most

home	62.5%	draw	9.9%	away	27.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.0%	away_+3.5	69.0%	home_-1.5	51.7%
away_+1.5	48.3%	home_-0.5	62.5%	away_+0.5	37.5%
home_+0.5	72.4%	away_-0.5	27.6%	home_+1.5	80.8%
away_-1.5	19.2%	home_+3.5	92.2%	away_-3.5	7.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	60.5%	under_22.5	39.5%	over_24.5	47.8%
under_24.5	52.2%	over_26.5	35.6%	under_26.5	64.4%
over_28.5	25.0%	under_28.5	75.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	74.5%	under_10.5	25.5%	over_12.5	58.5%
under_12.5	41.5%	over_14.5	42.0%	under_14.5	58.0%

team_away

over_10.5	47.9%	under_10.5	52.1%	over_12.5	30.1%
under_12.5	69.9%	over_14.5	16.9%	under_14.5	83.1%

most

home	66.6%	draw	5.7%	away	27.7%

handicap

home_-4.5	41.4%	away_+4.5	58.6%	home_-2.5	54.2%
away_+2.5	45.8%	home_-0.5	66.6%	away_+0.5	33.4%
home_+0.5	72.3%	away_-0.5	27.7%	home_+2.5	82.1%
away_-2.5	18.0%	home_+4.5	89.3%	away_-4.5	10.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	66.5%	under_6.5	33.5%	over_7.5	54.0%
under_7.5	46.0%	over_8.5	41.7%	under_8.5	58.3%
over_9.5	30.7%	under_9.5	69.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	67.3%	under_3.5	32.7%	over_4.5	51.1%
under_4.5	48.9%	over_5.5	36.0%	under_5.5	64.0%

team_away

over_3.5	39.9%	under_3.5	60.1%	over_4.5	23.8%
under_4.5	76.2%	over_5.5	12.9%	under_5.5	87.1%

most

home	63.1%	draw	11.6%	away	25.3%

handicap

home_-2.5	37.8%	away_+2.5	62.2%	home_-0.5	63.1%
away_+0.5	36.9%	home_+0.5	74.7%	away_-0.5	25.3%
home_+2.5	90.6%	away_-2.5	9.4%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	71.9%	under_2.5	28.1%	over_3.5	51.1%
under_3.5	48.9%	over_4.5	31.8%	under_4.5	68.3%
over_5.5	17.3%	under_5.5	82.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	55.2%	under_1.5	44.8%	over_2.5	28.3%
under_2.5	71.7%

team_away

over_1.5	55.9%	under_1.5	44.1%	over_2.5	28.9%
under_2.5	71.1%

most

home	38.8%	draw	21.5%	away	39.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	20.5%	away_+1.5	79.5%	home_-0.5	38.8%
away_+0.5	61.3%	home_+0.5	60.3%	away_-0.5	39.7%
home_+1.5	78.7%	away_-1.5	21.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	72.9%	under_20.5	27.1%	over_22.5	58.5%
under_22.5	41.5%	over_24.5	43.3%	under_24.5	56.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	66.9%	under_9.5	33.1%	over_11.5	44.8%
under_11.5	55.3%	over_13.5	25.3%	under_13.5	74.7%

team_away

over_9.5	78.5%	under_9.5	21.5%	over_11.5	59.2%
under_11.5	40.8%	over_13.5	38.6%	under_13.5	61.4%

most

home	36.2%	draw	7.4%	away	56.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	17.6%	away_+3.5	82.4%	home_-0.5	36.2%
away_+0.5	63.8%	home_+2.5	58.9%	away_-2.5	41.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.1%	no	89.9%

home

yes	5.5%	no	94.5%

away

yes	4.9%	no	95.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Salford predictions · Newport County predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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