NewcastleNewcastleWDLWL
Aston VillaAston VillaLDLWDNewcastle 0-1 Aston Villa expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result
Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
Result
Newcastle0-1Aston Villa
The match produced 0.92 xG for Newcastle and 2.08 xG for Aston Villa, against a final score of 0-1. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle have created 1.29 xG and scored 1.67 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Aston Villa have created 1.14 xG and scored 1.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
Recent xG per game
Recorded recent matches.
Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
D
L
W
L
2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses
L
D
L
W
D
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Match outlook
The model leans Newcastle to win.
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
NewcastleNewcastle (1)
William Osula
Aston VillaAston Villa (1)
Nicolas Jackson
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
