AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
NapoliNapoliLWDWL
Full time3-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:00UK19°C · Cloudy
RomaRomaWWDDW

Napoli 3-3 Roma cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.7%

Result

Napoli3-3Roma
5 yellow cardsNapoli 1, Roma 4
0 red cardsNapoli 0, Roma 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.3% and it missed (5 in the match). We called No at 85.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Andrea Colombo

Recorded match referee.

Andrea Colombo in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 17 2
Goals 3.00 Not available
Yellow cards 4.18 Not available
Red cards 0.06 Not available
Corners 9.1 Not available
Fouls 26.9 Not available
Both teams scored 71% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 59% Not available
Home wins 29% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Napoli vs Roma 3-3 6 Yes 5 0 13 17
5 Sep 2026 Roma vs Atalanta 2-1 3 Yes 2 1 15 19
9 May 2026 Lecce vs Juventus 0-1 1 No 2 0 8 25
12 Apr 2026 Bologna vs Lecce 2-0 2 No 2 0 14 34
22 Mar 2026 Fiorentina vs Inter 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 8 28
8 Mar 2026 Genoa vs Roma 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 9 28
28 Feb 2026 Verona vs Napoli 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 7 22
15 Feb 2026 Napoli vs Roma 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 3 28
7 Feb 2026 Fiorentina vs Torino 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 13 29
25 Jan 2026 Roma vs Milan 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 8 26

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Napoli vs Roma. The model leans toward Roma for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 64.9% 35.1%
3.5 cards 43.7% 56.3%
4.5 cards 25.9% 74.1%
5.5 cards 13.6% 86.4%

Who picks up more cards

Napoli
32.1%
Level
21.9%
Roma
46.0%

Team cards lines

Napoli

Over 1.5
44.4%
Over 2.5
20.1%

Roma

Over 1.5
54.8%
Over 2.5
29.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Napoli's; Roma gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Napoli line Napoli Roma
-1.5 15.5% 84.5%
-0.5 32.1% 67.9%
+0.5 54.0% 46.0%
+1.5 74.1% 25.9%

Red card

Any red card14.5%
Napoli red card6.4%
Roma red card8.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.1% 34.9%
22.5 fouls 51.7% 48.3%
24.5 fouls 38.6% 61.4%
NapoliNapoli

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Napoli at home and Roma away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RomaRoma
Statistic
Napoli
Roma
Yellow cards per game
0.8
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.2

Matches with card data
4
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 43.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 64.9% for over 2.5 to 13.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. Head to head on cards, Roma are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Napoli over 1.5 cards sits at 44.4% and Roma at 54.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.5% (Napoli 6.4%, Roma 8.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

43.7%Over 3.5 cards
14.5%Any red card
46.0%Most cards: Roma
44.4%Napoli over 1.5 cards
54.8%Roma over 1.5 cards
51.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianRoma are the pick to collect more cards at 46.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 43.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
NapoliNapoli

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RomaRoma
Statistic
Napoli
Roma
fouls per game
9.6
13.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Napoli vs Roma?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.7% for Napoli vs Roma.
Will there be a red card in Napoli vs Roma?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Napoli vs Roma?
Before kickoff, the model rated Roma to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Cards

Roma vs Cagliari predictionTorino vs Como predictionAC Milan vs Bologna cards predictionParma vs Udinese cards predictionVenezia vs Inter cards predictionGenoa vs Juventus cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Serie ANapoli fixtures and statsRoma fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.