Primeira Liga
Nacional vs 
Alverca Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 67.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 83.8% for over 2.5 to 31.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. On the card count, Nacional are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 19.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.7% | 68.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.2%
40.9%
66.7%
40.2%
Card handicap
| Nacional line | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| -0.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| +0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| +1.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Nacional cards per game10.8Nacional fouls per game2.4Alverca cards per game12.4Alverca fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nacional vs Alverca. The model leans toward Nacional for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
67.6%Over 3.5 cards19.2%Any red card67.2%Nacional over 1.5 cards66.7%Alverca over 1.5 cards70.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Nacional over 1.5 cards sits at 67.2% and Alverca at 66.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.2% (Nacional 8.3%, Alverca 11.9%). This season Nacional have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Alverca 2.4.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 67.6% for Nacional vs Alverca.
Will there be a red card in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model rates Nacional to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.