Casa Pia vs Porto prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Casa Pia vs Porto: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Casa Pia

LLLLD

Sat, 12 Sep 202618:00UK
Porto

WWWWW

Model’s top convictions

90%

Draw or Porto

72%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Not both teams to score

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PortoWin probability
68.8%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Porto90.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.11
Over 1.5 goals71.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
teams to score62.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Porto go into this Primeira Liga meeting with Casa Pia on 12 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 69%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Porto higher (78%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 38%. • Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Casa Pia against W6 D0 L0 for Porto. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Casa Pia, 0 draws and 4 for Porto over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.3%@ 2.21
Over 9.5 corners41.6%@ 2.40
Over 10.5 corners32.5%@ 3.08
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83
Over 8.5 corners51.8%@ 1.93
Random finds

0-1 correct score15.4%@ 6.49
0-2 correct score15.2%@ 6.60
0-3 correct score9.7%@ 10.36

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Casa Pia

10.0%+2.3%

Draw

21.3%+7.2%

Porto

68.8%-9.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes37.8%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.551.8%

Good chance

Over 9.541.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.532.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.6%

Low chance

Most cornersCasa Pia43.8%Porto45.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.8%

Good chance

Over 24.539.8%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.9%

Low chance

Over 28.519.9%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Casa Pia11.0 taken14.2 faced
Porto14.8 taken9.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.5%2.545.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).

Form & head-to-head

Casa PiaLLLLD
PortoWWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Casa Pia 1 · 0 draws · Porto 4 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-02-02Casa Pia 2-1 Porto
2025-08-24Porto 4-0 Casa Pia
2025-04-12Casa Pia 0-1 Porto
2024-12-02Porto 2-0 Casa Pia
2024-04-21Casa Pia 1-2 Porto

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Casa PiaPorto
League position#18 of 18#1 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-45-0-0
Current streakD1W5
Points per game0.203.00
Record, home vs away0-0-22-0-0
Goals scored per game0.002.20
Goals conceded per game2.200.20
1st half goals per game0.001.40
2nd half goals per game0.000.80
Corners won per game4.07.0
Cards per game2.00.4
Fouls per game11.213.8
Red cards this season10
Shots per game9.215.0
Shots faced per game15.89.6
Shots on target per game2.26.6
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

0.0%20.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%80.0%

Rates this season:Casa PiaPorto

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Casa Pia win10.0010.00
Draw6.004.69
Porto win1.221.45
Over 2.5 goals1.752.21
Under 2.5 goals2.051.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Casa Pia win10.02
Draw4.71
Porto win1.45
Both teams to score2.64

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.21
Over 3.5 goals4.17
Casa Pia most10.02
Porto most1.45

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.53
Over 8.5 corners1.87
Over 9.5 corners2.38
Over 10.5 corners3.17
Casa Pia most2.28
Porto most2.20

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.48
Over 4.5 cards2.05
Over 5.5 cards3.17
Casa Pia most2.19
Porto most2.82

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.58
Over 7.5 SoT2.01
Over 8.5 SoT2.72
Over 9.5 SoT3.88
Casa Pia most3.34
Porto most1.75

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.93
Over 24.5 shots2.52
Over 26.5 shots3.46
Over 28.5 shots5.03
Casa Pia most2.05
Porto most2.23

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.32
Over 24.5 fouls1.56
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.8% Over 24.5 39.7% Over 26.5 28.9% Over 28.5 19.9%
Most: Casa Pia 48.8% Most: Porto 44.9%
Casa Pia Over 13.2 32.6% Porto Over 13.2 30.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.2% Over 7.5 49.7% Over 8.5 36.8% Over 9.5 25.8%
Most: Casa Pia 30.0% Most: Porto 57.0%
Casa Pia Over 4.2 24.9% Porto Over 4.2 43.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.7% Over 3.5 67.4% Over 4.5 48.7%
Most: Casa Pia 45.6% Most: Porto 35.5%
Casa Pia Over 1.8 69.9% Porto Over 1.8 63.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Casa Pia clean sheet 14.8%
Porto clean sheet 55.4%
Casa Pia win to nil 6.1%
Porto win to nil 46.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 10.0% draw 21.3% away 68.8%
double_chance
1X 31.2% 12 78.8% X2 90.0%
dnb
home 12.7% away 87.3%
btts
yes 37.8% no 62.2%
clean_sheet
home 14.8% away 56.1%
win_to_nil
home 6.1% away 47.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 7.6% home_by_2 2.0% home_by_3plus 0.4%
away_by_1 25.9% away_by_2 21.5% away_by_3plus 21.3%
correct_score
0-0 8.8% 0-1 15.4% 0-2 15.2%
0-3 9.7% 0-4 4.6% 0-5 1.8%
1-0 4.4% 1-1 9.6% 1-2 8.7%
1-3 5.6% 1-4 2.7% 1-5 1.0%
2-0 1.4% 2-1 2.7% 2-2 2.5%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 0.3% 3-1 0.5% 3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.3% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.0% 4-1 0.1% 4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 15.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.2% under_0.5 8.8% over_1.5 71.5%
under_1.5 28.5% over_2.5 45.3% under_2.5 54.7%
over_3.5 24.0% under_3.5 76.0% over_4.5 10.7%
under_4.5 89.3% over_5.5 4.1% under_5.5 95.9%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 43.9% under_0.5 56.1% over_1.5 11.5%
under_1.5 88.5% over_2.5 2.1% under_2.5 97.9%
team_away
over_0.5 85.2% under_0.5 14.8% over_1.5 56.9%
under_1.5 43.1% over_2.5 29.9% under_2.5 70.1%
most
home 10.0% draw 21.3% away 68.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 0.4% away_+2.5 99.6% home_-1.5 2.4%
away_+1.5 97.6% home_-0.5 10.0% away_+0.5 90.0%
home_+0.5 31.2% away_-0.5 68.8% home_+1.5 57.1%
away_-1.5 42.9% home_+2.5 78.6% away_-2.5 21.3%
total_exact
exact_0 8.8% exact_1 19.8% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 9.0% draw 38.7% away 52.3%
total
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.6% over_1.5 32.0%
under_1.5 68.0% over_2.5 11.0% under_2.5 89.0%
btts
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
total_exact
exact_0 31.6% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.0%
exact_3 8.1% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 10.4% draw 35.1% away 54.6%
total
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.5%
under_1.5 61.5% over_2.5 15.1% under_2.5 84.9%
btts
yes 16.5% no 83.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 4.4% H/D 2.7% H/A 1.9%
D/H 4.0% D/D 13.6% D/A 21.1%
A/H 0.5% A/D 3.1% A/A 48.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.3% under_7.5 34.7% over_8.5 53.5%
under_8.5 46.5% over_9.5 41.9% under_9.5 58.1%
over_10.5 31.5% under_10.5 68.5% over_11.5 22.7%
under_11.5 77.3% over_12.5 15.7% under_12.5 84.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.9% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 45.0%
under_4.5 55.0% over_5.5 31.1% under_5.5 68.9%
team_away
over_3.5 61.9% under_3.5 38.1% over_4.5 46.1%
under_4.5 53.9% over_5.5 32.2% under_5.5 67.8%
most
home 43.9% draw 10.7% away 45.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.2% away_+3.5 82.8% home_-1.5 33.7%
away_+1.5 66.3% home_-0.5 43.9% away_+0.5 56.1%
home_+0.5 54.6% away_-0.5 45.4% home_+1.5 64.9%
away_-1.5 35.1% home_+3.5 81.9% away_-3.5 18.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.8% under_22.5 48.2% over_24.5 39.8%
under_24.5 60.3% over_26.5 28.9% under_26.5 71.1%
over_28.5 19.9% under_28.5 80.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 57.4% under_10.5 42.6% over_12.5 40.3%
under_12.5 59.7% over_14.5 25.9% under_14.5 74.1%
team_away
over_10.5 54.7% under_10.5 45.3% over_12.5 37.6%
under_12.5 62.4% over_14.5 23.6% under_14.5 76.4%
most
home 48.8% draw 6.3% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 25.4% away_+4.5 74.6% home_-2.5 36.4%
away_+2.5 63.6% home_-0.5 48.8% away_+0.5 51.2%
home_+0.5 55.1% away_-0.5 44.9% home_+2.5 67.2%
away_-2.5 32.8% home_+4.5 77.6% away_-4.5 22.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.2% under_6.5 36.8% over_7.5 49.7%
under_7.5 50.3% over_8.5 36.8% under_8.5 63.2%
over_9.5 25.8% under_9.5 74.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 42.0% under_3.5 58.0% over_4.5 24.9%
under_4.5 75.1% over_5.5 13.3% under_5.5 86.7%
team_away
over_3.5 61.6% under_3.5 38.4% over_4.5 43.8%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
most
home 30.0% draw 13.0% away 57.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.2% away_+2.5 88.8% home_-0.5 30.0%
away_+0.5 70.0% home_+0.5 43.0% away_-0.5 57.0%
home_+2.5 69.5% away_-2.5 30.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.7% under_2.5 16.3% over_3.5 67.4%
under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 48.8% under_4.5 51.2%
over_5.5 31.6% under_5.5 68.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 69.9% under_1.5 30.1% over_2.5 44.1%
under_2.5 55.9%
team_away
over_1.5 63.5% under_1.5 36.5% over_2.5 36.7%
under_2.5 63.3%
most
home 45.6% draw 19.0% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 27.8% away_+1.5 72.2% home_-0.5 45.6%
away_+0.5 54.4% home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5%
home_+1.5 80.3% away_-1.5 19.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.1% under_20.5 14.9% over_22.5 75.6%
under_22.5 24.3% over_24.5 64.2% under_24.5 35.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.3% under_9.5 18.7% over_11.5 65.5%
under_11.5 34.6% over_13.5 47.7% under_13.5 52.3%
team_away
over_9.5 81.2% under_9.5 18.9% over_11.5 65.3%
under_11.5 34.7% over_13.5 47.5% under_13.5 52.5%
most
home 46.9% draw 6.4% away 46.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-0.5 46.9%
away_+0.5 53.1% home_+2.5 65.7% away_-2.5 34.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.3% no 79.7%
home
yes 16.8% no 83.2%
away
yes 4.2% no 95.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Casa Pia predictions · Porto predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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