Primeira Liga
Nacional vs 
Alverca Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 58.4% for over 22.5 to 24.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. Between the two sides, Nacional are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.6%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.9% | 75.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.0%
51.7%
36.3%
52.3%
35.2%
21.6%
Shot handicap
| Nacional line | Nacional | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| -2.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| -0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.9% | 41.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.2% | 65.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.0Nacional shots per game16.8Nacional shots faced per game10.0Alverca shots per game13.2Alverca shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Nacional.
In-depth analysis
46.3%Over 24.5 shots51.7%Nacional over 12.5 shots35.2%Alverca over 12.5 shots58.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Nacional over 12.5 shots sits at 51.7% and Alverca at 35.2%. This season Nacional have averaged 10.0 shots a game and Alverca 10.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 46.3% for Nacional vs Alverca.
Which team will have more shots in Nacional vs Alverca?
The model rates Nacional to take more shots at 58.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.