Ligue 2Dunkerque vs 
St Etienne Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 58.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Dunkerque have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, St Etienne 3.2 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 58.4% for over 2.5 and 81.0% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Dunkerque have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, St Etienne in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.6% | 5.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 19.1% | 80.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.8% | 91.2% |
Team goal lines
71.4%
35.6%
13.2%
83.1%
53.1%
26.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.9% | 76.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Dunkerque goals scored per game1.8Dunkerque goals conceded per game40.0%Dunkerque Over 2.5 rate0.6Dunkerque 1st-half goals per game3.2St Etienne goals scored per game0.8St Etienne goals conceded per game100.0%St Etienne Over 2.5 rate1.8St Etienne 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
59.8%Both Teams to Score58.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 58.4% for three or more goals and 81.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With St Etienne favoured at 49.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans St Etienne to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dunkerque 2 · 0 draws · St Etienne 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dunkerque vs St Etienne?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 58.4% for Dunkerque vs St Etienne.
Will there be a first-half goal in Dunkerque vs St Etienne?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 76.9%.
How often have Dunkerque gone over 2.5 recently?
Dunkerque have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, St Etienne in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.